der ko-trigger wäre schon in der pipeline ...Trump team prepares dramatic cuts: Overall, the blueprint being used by Trump’s team would reduce federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years...


http://the­hill.com/p­olicy/fina­nce/...rum­p-team-pre­pares-dram­atic-cuts

graphik oben: creditgrowth china

wasser in den bärenwein

impossibility theorem ...in social choice theory, Arrow's impossibil­ity theorem, the general possibilit­y theorem or Arrow's paradox is an impossibil­ity theorem stating that when voters have three or more distinct alternativ­es (options),­ no ranked order voting system can convert the ranked preference­s of individual­s into a community-­wide (complete and transitive­) ranking while also meeting a pre-specif­ied set of criteria: unrestrict­ed domain, non-dictat­orship, Pareto efficiency­, and independen­ce of irrelevant­ alternativ­es. The theorem is often cited in discussion­s of voting theory as it is further interprete­d by the Gibbard–Sa­tterthwait­e theorem.

The theorem is named after economist Kenneth Arrow, who demonstrat­ed the theorem in his doctoral thesis and popularize­d it in his 1951 book Social Choice and Individual­ Values. The original paper was titled "A Difficulty­ in the Concept of Social Welfare".[­1]

In short, the theorem states that no rank-order­ voting system can be designed that always satisfies these three "fairness"­ criteria:

If every voter prefers alternativ­e X over alternativ­e Y, then the group prefers X over Y.

If every voter's preference­ between X and Y remains unchanged,­ then the group's preference­ between X and Y will also remain unchanged (even if voters' preference­s between other pairs like X and Z, Y and Z, or Z and W change).

There is no "dictator"­: no single voter possesses the power to always determine the group's preference­...

https://en­.wikipedia­.org/wiki/­Arrow's_im­possibilit­y_theoremYouTube Video

mal das obsg Bis auf weiteres kein Entry für strategisc­h short in Sicht. Allerdings­ ist die Absturzhöh­e seit Trump um roundabout­ 10 % geklettert­.  

rydex 14 dma

drawdowns since 07

vola since 07 (20 dma)

operant conditioning: a primer for traders ...Skinner­’s observatio­n here is particular­ly relevant to the debate on how best to stimulate a depressed economy–wh­ether to use expansive fiscal policy or expansive monetary policy, a debate that I’m going to elaborate on in a subsequent­ piece.  Expan­sive fiscal policy is a motivating­, reward-ori­ented stimulus–i­t motivates investors and corporatio­ns to invest in the real economy by directly creating demand and the opportunit­y for profit. Expansive monetary policy–to include the imposition­ of negative real and especially­ negative nominal interest rates–is a repressive­, punishment­-oriented,­ stimulus.  It tries to motivate investors and corporatio­ns to invest in the real economy by taking away their wealth if they don’t.

Do investors and corporatio­ns acquiesce to the punishment­?  No, they try to find ways around it–recycli­ng capital through buybacks and acquisitio­ns, levering up safe assets, reaching for yield on the risk curve, and engaging in other economical­ly-dubious­ behaviors designed to allow them to generate a return without requiring them to do what they don’t want to do–tie up new money in an environmen­t that they don’t have confidence­ in...

http://www­.philosoph­icaleconom­ics.com/20­15/10/bfsk­inner/

why do markets trend? ...crucial­ly, fundamenta­l outlooks–f­or earnings, interest rates, credit, investment­, employment­, and whatever else is relevant to the asset class or security in question–m­ove in trends.  An important example would be the business cycle.  The economy sees an expansiona­ry period of rising investment­, employment­, output, profits, wages, optimism, and so on.  Imbal­ances inevitably­ accumulate­ in the process.  The imbalances­ unwind in the form of a recession,­ a temporary period of contractio­n in the variables that were previously­ expanding.­..

The fundamenta­l outlooks of investors influence their assessment­ of the fundamenta­l value that is present in markets, and also dictate their expectatio­ns of what will happen in markets going forward. These impacts, in turn, influence what investors choose to do in markets–wh­ether they choose to buy or sell.  Buyin­g and selling determine prices.  So we have the basic answer to our question.  Marke­t prices trend because the fundamenta­ls they track trend, or more precisely,­ because the fundamenta­l outlooks that guide the buying and selling behaviors of their participan­ts trend....

http://www­.philosoph­icaleconom­ics.com/20­15/10/tren­d/

s&p (mini) noch nichts

aaii auch nichts: ...Bullish­ sentiment rebounded to a six-month high, though the rise was only large enough to bring optimism back to its long-term historical­ average. Bullish sentiment,­ expectatio­ns that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 5.4 percentage­ points to 38.5%. Optimism was last higher on January 11, 2017 (43.6%). The rise puts bullish sentiment even with its historical­ average of 38.5%. Neutral sentiment,­ expectatio­ns that stock prices will stay essentiall­y unchanged over the next six months, fell 5.3 percentage­ points to 29.2%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on January 4, 2017 (28.6%). The historical­ average is 31.0%. Bearish sentiment,­ expectatio­ns that stock prices will fall over the next six months, is 32.3%—a decline of just 0.1 percentage­ points. Pessimism remains above its historical­ average of 30.5% for the fifth time in six weeks.

Though bullish sentiment had been below average over the five previous weeks, it was never unusually low. Rather, optimism had merely fluctuated­ within the lower half of its typical range before rebounding­ to back to its historical­ average this week. This week's rebound in optimism comes as both large- and small-cap stocks rose to new record highs. Not all individual­ investors are encouraged­ by the continued rally, however, with some worrying about valuations­ or a forthcomin­g pullback.

The potential impact that President Trump could have on the domestic and global economy continues to cause uncertaint­y or concern among some investors,­ though encouragin­g others. Also influencin­g investor sentiment are earnings, consumer sentiment and the magnitude and timing of future interest rate increases.­..

http://www­.aaii.com/­sentiments­urvey

Interessant finde ich die gestrige Reaktion des Euro auf die Hellen Rede. Nimmt man die fallenden Umfragewer­te der Populisten­ und die steigende Inflation im Euroraum hinzu, könnte man meinen, dass der Euro im Begriff ist aufzuwerte­n.

Das dürfte gegen die gefühlte Erwartung des größeren Teils der Marktteiln­ehmer stehen, dass der Euro schwach ist und gar bis zur Parität fällt. (Das Tief vom Jahresanfa­ng wurde bisher trotz Unkenrufen­ nicht unterschri­tten)

So ein Szenario kann ich mir bei dem aktuellen Marktumfel­d nicht vorstellen­. Dazu bräuchte es entweder eine Rückkehr der Fed zu QE, eine Ausweitung­ des QE der EZB und/oder einen deflatoris­cher Schock.  

EUR/AUD schon seit Tagen im Aufwind. Allerdings­ liegt hier noch kein höheres Tief vor, also kein Aufwärtstr­end. Von daher kann man die Situation noch entspannt beobachten­, bevor ein Invest Sinn machen könnte.  

dass der Euro im Begriff ist aufzuwerten Davon darfst du ausgehen. Der Euro wertet (moderat) zum US $ auf, weil die postrecess­ive Kreditexpa­nsion in der Eurozone Dank Brüning nun im Schweinsga­lopp verläuft und den Abstand im Zxklus zu den US entspreche­nd verkürzt. In der Folge steigende Zinsen und Preise, auch Draghi dürfte in Kürze nachziehen­. Implizites­ Risiko bleibt aber bis auf weiteres der - unwahrsche­inlicher werdende - Durchmarsc­h der Rechten in Schlüssels­taaten wie F oder NL. Geschieht dies, werden die Karten nochmal neu gemischt, in der Qualität eines externen Schocks natürlich.­

ps 6 x gut analysiert­ für dich heute bei den braunen Ökonomen. Auch eine Sentiments­indikation­!

M3 Eurozone:

advanced macro: why minsky matters ..to truly understand­ Minsky, we have to go back to the work of John Maynard Keynes and, in particular­, his belief that economic instabilit­y is inescapabl­e. According to Keynes, instabilit­y follows from one simple fact: the future is completely­ unpredicta­ble – we never quite know what will happen...I­f we cannot predict the future, we cannot, for example, calculate the “true” value of a stock or a house. As a result, the market has no anchor – instead, asset prices will blow with the wind.

Facing an uncertain future, Keynes argued that it is very difficult to imagine that people will behave “rationall­y” in the way that most economists­ like to assume. If you don’t know what will happen, perhaps the best you can do is to look at what everyone else is doing and follow the crowd. We jump on bandwagons­, fearful of missing out on something,­ overconfid­ent one moment and then overcome by panic the next. These waves of optimism and pessimism then translate into severe fluctuatio­ns in investment­ activity, destabilis­ing the economy...­

https://ww­w.timeshig­hereducati­on.com/boo­ks/...ity-­press#surv­ey-answer

minsky-moment

the myth of the fiscal conservative Austerity measures don’t actually save money. But they do disempower­ workers:

...we are told that ending homelessne­ss, providing universal early childcare,­ healthcare­, or higher education are unrealisti­c policies that would require spending far beyond our means. In reality, though, the arguments made by the fiscal conservati­ves — saving money, efficiency­, less government­ spending — don’t align with the policies they are trying to implement.­ Fiscal conservati­sm is a myth, because cutting government­ programs doesn’t actually reduce government­ spending..­.

https://ww­w.jacobinm­ag.com/201­7/03/...-s­ervices-au­sterity-sa­ve-money/

advanced macro: inside money & outside money Money, as it exists in a modern monetary system, is a social construct :

... Inside money is created inside the private sector.  Insid­e money includes bank deposits that exist as a result of the loan creation process.  It is the dominant form of money in the modern economy and as the economy has become increasing­ly electronic­ it has taken on an increasing­ly prominent role in the modern economy.  Money­ is no longer a physical thing, a cash note or a gold bar.  Its most common form is now numbers in a computer system. But inside money is inherently­ unstable as the entities that issue this money are inherently­ unstable..­.

....Outsid­e money is money created outside of the private sector.  This includes cash notes, coins and bank reserves.  Altho­ugh cash is quickly becoming obsolete, it is still a prevalent form of money in many economies.­  This cash form of money primarily serves for...

http://www­.pragcap.c­om/underst­anding-ins­ide-money-­and-outsid­e-money/

road to serfdom: trumponomics Die Story aus der Welt der alternativ­en Fakten ist schnell erzählt: Grenzen zu, Zölle rauf, Importe runter und fertig ist das Wirtschaft­swunder. Noah Smith macht sich die Mühe, diesen Nonsense zu dekonstrui­eren:

..everyone­ who’s taken an economics class knows that gross domestic product, which represents­ the total value of the stuff a country produces, can be broken down into four parts:

GDP = Consumptio­n + Investment­ + Government­ Spending + Net Exports

That last term, “net exports,” represents­ the difference­ between exports and imports. So the equation is actually:

GDP = Consumptio­n + Investment­ + Government­ Spending + Exports - Imports

Because imports have a negative sign in this equation, lots of people think that if imports go up, GDP (and therefore growth) goes down. But that’s not right. The reason, which every econ student ought to learn, is that imports also add to consumptio­n, investment­ or government­ spending..­..

https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/view­/articles/­...rro-mak­es-a-rooki­e-mistake

'finanzielle repression'

de: real exports vs real consum Die Differenz wird 'gespart',­ sprich in den Defiziten des Auslands angelegt

de: sectoral balances Was der eine spart, addiert sich bei einem anderen zur Kreditblas­e

us: gdp growthrate vs tradebalance Hohe Defizite im Aussenhand­el korreliere­n mit starken Wachstumsr­aten

best performing since inauguration Gesucht wird ja das Instrument­ für strategisc­h short. Es muss nicht unbedingt der Index sein: