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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

16.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 80

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Driving diversification

Traumautoverlosung brings ZEAL's proprietary charity-raffle format into the

premium car category, with the first draw centred on a Porsche 911 GT3 RS

worth EUR 349k. The launch fits neatly into ZEAL's diversification strategy,

as proprietary formats broaden the group's offering beyond lottery

brokerage, reduce dependence on jackpot cycles and support structurally

stronger economics. ZEAL's entire lottery business delivered a 17.7%

billings margin in 2025, while proprietary raffle formats such as

Traumhausverlosung are seen to carry c. 43% billings margin (eNuW).

Execution risk also looks manageable, given ZEAL's successful scale-up of

Traumhausverlosung.

The first raffle is structured with 250,000 tickets at EUR 9.90, implying c. EUR

2.5m billings and c. EUR 1.1m revenue potential (eNuW, see p.2 for details),

which remains modest in isolation. The attraction lies in ZEAL's ability to

scale the format over time. In our medium-term base case, we assume 300,000

tickets and c. EUR 1.3m revenue per draw at full sell-through. This would

translate into c. EUR 11.5m revenue at 10 annual draws and 90% sell-through,

equivalent to c. 5% of 2026e group sales. We therefore see

Traumautoverlosung as an incremental growth driver (partly reflected in

estimates).

A recent whitepaper on the UK prize draw market offers a useful external

read-across for this strategy (source: Rokker, iGB):

* Younger demographics. The format is more lifestyle- and

aspiration-driven than the classic lottery product and appears well

suited to reach younger customer groups (incl. Gen Z and millennials).

* Appealing customer acquisition costs. Low ticket prices and emotionally

strong prizes should support conversion, although transferability to

ZEAL seems still limited at this stage, in our view.

* High cross-sell potential. The most relevant datapoint is the strong

behavioural overlap: 88% of prize draw participants also engage in

commercial gambling activities and lotteries over a 12-month period.

Q1 26 preview: ZEAL is due to report Q1 on 6 May (see p.2 for details). We

expect a financially unexciting quarter, driven by the absence of peak

jackpots in Lotto and EJ. Still, sales look set to improve 8% yoy to EUR 55.3m

(broadly stable qoq), thanks to a growing monthly active user base. EBITDA

is expected to decline 15% yoy to EUR 15.1m (broadly stable qoq), reflecting a

demanding comp, as Q1 25 still benefited from active customer cohorts

acquired in Q4 24, an unusually strong jackpot quarter. Overall, we would

not overinterpret Q1, as the quarter says little about ZEAL's full earnings

power. It does, however, show that the business remains sequentially stable

even in an unfavourable jackpot environment, while still funding new growth

initiatives such as Traumautoverlosung.

BUY, PT EUR 80, based on DCF. - continued -

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Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2309440 16.04.2026 CET/CEST

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