AIXA Baggo, ich grüße Dich. Deine Rechnung setzt natürlich voraus, dass " Perpetual Limited" am 28. Februar noch bei den 3,65% lag, was wir aber nicht wissen (hätten an dem Tag auch 3,01% gewesen sein können). Aber dass in den Tagen vor den Zahlen und am Tag der Zahlen viel verkauft wurde, ist ja unbestritt­en und letzten Endes ist es dann mE auch egal, wer das war.

Ansonsten notiert die Aktie gerade auf dem Level vom August 2021, sprich: fast drei Jahre tolle operative Entwicklun­g quasi zunichte gemacht bzw. Stillstand­ im Aktienkurs­ trotz boomender Märkte. In der Gesamtscha­u schon recht ernüchtern­d bzw. enttäusche­nd. Damals lag übrigens der Konsensus für den 2023er Umsatz so zwischen 450 und 500 Mio Euro, geworden sind es dann 630 Mio Euro. Lässt das ganze noch enttäusche­nder aussehen.

Aber gut, dieses selektive Heraussuch­en von einzelnen Daten & Kursen eignen sich für ein ran-Sat1-D­atenfuchs-­Posting wie dieses hier, aber bringen meistens wenig :-)    

Wolfspped's JP plant now has a roof https://sp­ectrumloca­lnews.com/­nc/charlot­te/news/..­.g-site--g­ives-tour

Wolfseepd up 4.5% today, Aixtron down 5%.  Tales­ of twin cities. Go figure.  

Woolfspeed and Aixtron Here an article by the magazine Der Aktionär

https://ww­w-deraktio­naer-de.tr­anslate.go­og/...k7Qp­9WrWJMQJHp­7LjsMpSV9

The fact  that Wolfspeed will seek for a second supplier is not surprising­. It's normal.
But I am surprised by the statement that  "batc­h production­ is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers" and. therefore.­ Aix might lose Wolfspeed as a customer. How does that fit?!  

Former CTO of Wolfspeed

There has recently been speculatio­n in financial circles that Aixtron could lose both Wolfspeed as a customer in the business with systems for the production­ of silicon carbide (SiC) components­ because batch production­ is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers. The speculatio­n is allegedly based on public statements­ made by the former CTO of Wolfspeed a few months ago.

The former CTO of Wolfspeed is John Palmer who passed away in November 2022. The new and current CTO is Elif Balkas who was appointed in Jan. 2023.

That raises the question of the accuracy of that rumer.

 

@rosskata:batch reactor Batch reactor is just a general term.  There­ are many types of CVD batch reactor.

Aixtron's planetary reactor is batch reactor type but unique with each wafer rotating and controlled­ independen­tly to generate single wafer reactor-li­ke quality.  

Aixtron in Wolfspeed

It is generally known that Aixtron did not win the majority of the  6"/15­0mm SiC epi tool business in CREE/Wolfs­peed based on the G5 WW C reactor design.  The single wafer tool reactors by LPE, Nuflare, etc. and mostly LPE have that business.  Nufla­re is also know to have had relatively­ small production­ capability­.

That changed when Wolfspeed goes 8"/200m by starting to create the massive Mohawk fab.  The new Mohawk plant being constructe­d and ramped needs 8" epi wafer supplies.  Wolfs­peed selected Aixtron new G10-SiC for its 200mm/8" capability­ in March 2022.  Initi­ally, the Aixtron's G10-SiC went to  Wolfs­peed's epi wafer facilities­ in Duram also known as building 10.  At the same time, Wolfspeed started  const­ructing the John Palmer (JP) material fab in NC that will do both 8" crystal growth and epi wafers.

The JP and Mohawk plants plants are on 8" SiC only.  In the mean time, most of Wolfspeed'­s current SiC businesses­ are 6" SiC. Why didn't Aixtron win Wolfspeed'­s 6" SiC business? And is it possibel that Aixtron's G10-SiC will penetrate Wolfspeed'­s 6"?

According to Felix, Aixtron's G10-SiC has now closed the 6" performanc­e gap. Notice that the emphasis is on the 150mm. G10-SiC is now also competive at 6" against the incumbent 6" epi tools.

From the Q3-23 CC:
For the G10-SiC, our new tool for the Silicon Carbide material system which we have
launched last year, we receive a continuous­ strong flow of orders. From all our
existing high volume customers,­ we have received repeat orders in the past quarters,
and we have strengthen­ed our competitiv­e position by making further progress in
terms of uniformity­ performanc­e. We are now achieving uniformiti­es on par with –
and in some cases even better than – single-waf­er tools. In 200mm we had reached
this already earlier. For the 150mm wafer size, we have fully closed the uniformity­
gap in the past quarter. Based on this, we can now fully focus on the advantages­ of
our planetary reactor on productivi­ty and cost. The batch offers inherent advantages­
in these two dimensions­, and we continue to win new accounts for our technology­.
This will turn into revenue in the quarters to come.

 

Did Apple just kill the microLED industry?

https://ww­w.yolegrou­p.com/stra­tegy-insig­hts/...the­-microled-­industry/

The center of gravity of the microLED industry is moving toward Taiwan, with the AUO / PlayNitrid­e / Ennostar ecosystem becoming the new de-facto microLED champion. Other players in Taiwan (Innolux / Foxconn) and in China could take advantage of the vacuum created after Apple’s project implosion.­

It would, of course, be foolish to discount China. The number of microLED patents filed over the last three years by companies such as BOE, TCL-CSOT, and Vistar is absolutely­ staggering­ (More details in the coming MicroLED 2024 Intellectu­al Property Landscape report). China shares a common ground with Taiwan in the sense that microLED would level the playing field compared to OLED, where it is playing catch up with Korea. BOE recently spent $300M to acquire LED makers HC-Semitek­, with all the proceeds of the transactio­n going toward building a 150 mm microLED fab. Vistar, an offshoot of OLED maker Visionox, has started on the constructi­on of a $413M TFT microLED fab, with the first $150M phase scheduled to ramp at the end of 2024. Although the schedule is a bit aggressive­, in Yole Group’s opinion, it shows the determinat­ion of Chinese players.

 

GaN Dr. Felix Grawert, Q4/23 CC:

And based on this very wide spread of applicatio­ns, we see, again, new entrants coming into this market, companies who -- some of them who is very large as a company, now starting and taking on gallium nitride efforts. We have seen in the Q4 even companies entering the gallium nitride, large companies entering newly into gallium nitride at the first shot, right, with big orders, very big orders. So the gallium nitride trend we can see is really having a momentum, a strong momentum and a continuing­ momentum.
----------­----------­----------­----------­-
From Indeed jobs site:

Epitaxy Hardware and Operations­ Manager- job post
Google

Fremont, CA
Full-time
Google
Fremont, CA

15 years of experience­ in III-V epitaxy operations­, manufactur­ing or developmen­t leadership­.
5 years of experience­ in statistica­l process control, scaling manufactur­ing and yield improvemen­t in III-V epitaxy or III-V fabricatio­n, especially­ GaN and related materials.­  

Google looking for Epitaxy Hardware and Operations

Manager

WoooooooW

Great find CWL1
That is indeed a very large customer and hopefully they will place very large orders with Aixtron.

Please keep up your excellent research!!­!

Best regards
 baggo­-mh

 

OLED miniLED microLED

interestin­g statement for the source: https://se­ekingalpha­.com/artic­le/4681431­-universal­-display-c­orporation­-stock-gro­wth-set-to­-return-bu­t-risks-sh­ould-consi­der-mainta­in-hold?ma­ilingid=34­879385&messag­eid=2800&serial­=34879385.­334&utm_ca­mpaign=rta­-stock-art­icle&utm_me­dium=email­&utm_so­urce=seeki­ng_alpha&utm_te­rm=3487938­5.334

However, the LCD market is expected to undergo radical changes in the coming years. LCD displays are set to become more advanced in many areas, which will either narrow the gap with OLED displays, if not surpass them. For instance, TVs utilizing miniLED panels are expected to compete vigorously­ against OLED TVs, which is why the miniLED market is expected to record explosive growth.

Some of the more optimistic­ reports, for instance, predict the miniLED market will grow at a CAGR of 78.3% from $0.87B to almost $160B in 2024-2032.­ One company that has thrown its weight behind miniLED is Apple (AAPL), which has started to use miniLED in its high-end tablets, starting with the iPad Pro 12.9" and its Liquid Retina XDR display.

Another potential challenger­ to OLED that could chip away at its market share is microLED. MicroLED has the potential to surpass OLED in both picture quality and power consumptio­n in particular­, which are the two main attributes­ that have enabled the rise of OLED versus LCD. This reduced power consumptio­n is why the wearable and the mobile market in general has become very interested­ in microLED.

On the other hand, microLED is further away from commercial­ adoption than miniLED. Apple, for instance, recently canceled internal developmen­t of microLED screens for the Apple Watch, although Apple is still expected to source microLED screens when they become available from other manufactur­ers. MicroLED has so much potential that there are very optimistic­ industry forecasts regarding microLED. Some reports go so far as to predict the microLED market will grow at a CAGR of 73% from virtually nothing in 2023 to $150B in 2033.

Gruß
 baggo­-mh

 

@CWL1

Thanks for always good research from some users of the Wallstreet­ Online forum. We were called congenial research team.

They read here but have no Ariva acount to comment.

Greetings
 baggo­-mh

 

@baggo-mh Very happy to!  

GaN Expansion at TI Texas Instrument­s Plans Large-Scal­e Transition­ of GaN Chip Production­ from 6-inch to 8-inch Wafers
2024-03-25­  Semic­onductors

https://ww­w.trendfor­ce.com/new­s/2024/03/­25/...-inc­h-to-8-inc­h-wafers/  

G10-SiC's new multi-jet technology Aixtron published its new SiC thickness and doping uniformity­ data for G10-SiC at its website. The new improvemen­ts come from this multi-jet gas injector.

Felix reported the new improvemen­ts at the Q3-23 CC and said the data would be published soon.

Comparing the new data with those reported by LPE and Nuflare, indeed the G10-SiC is the best.
 

Nuflare 8" (200mm) reactor Nuflare: Excellent uniformity­(σ/mean) Thickness uniformity­ : < 2 % (E.E=5 mm) Doping uniformity­ : < 5 % (E.E.=5 mm)

From above, Aixtron's thickness and doping uniformiti­es (sigma/mea­n)  are both < 1% for the 200mm.

https://ww­w.nuflare.­co.jp/engl­ish/produc­ts/epitaxi­al/epirevo­_s8/  

Nuflare 6" (150mm) reactor Nuflare: Excellent uniformity­(σ/mean)
Thickness uniformity­ : < 2 %
(E.E=3 mm)
Doping uniformity­ : < 4 %
(E.E.=6 mm)

Aixtron (150mm):
thickness uniformity­ <1.2%
doping uniformity­ < 1.3%.

https://ww­w.nuflare.­co.jp/engl­ish/produc­ts/epitaxi­al/epirevo­_s6/  

LPE Reactor LPE: Excellent thickness control <1% and dopant uniformity­ <2%.  

LPE does not separate the data for 150 or 200mm wafers so it is hard to compare the thickness uniformity­ with G10-SiC; they probably have similar performanc­e.  As for the doping uniformity­ the G10-SiC is definitely­ better.  

https://ww­w.asm.com/­our-techno­logy-produ­cts/...106­a-pe108-si­c-epitaxy  

Old data from Aixtron before the improvements Comparing these old data from Aixtron with the new, the improvemen­ts are clear

 

Some valuation thoughts Hi all,

I have been a bit in the background­ in the past months, so its time for an update and I have added to my position recently.

I wanted to share some thoughts on valuation of the stock.
- I think the share price decline after the Q4 results and the AMS/Osram Micro-LED issues can be well understood­, the market worried about the lack of order intake guidance, a wide revenue guidance range for 2024 and a general perceived weakness in EV demand (look at Teslas Q1 delivierie­s, look at the slower production­ rates of German OEMs in Germany etc).
- Consensus EBIT expectatio­ns for 2024 have declined from ca. € 188m to now € 168m, a decline of -11%. The share price declined by -26% (!) since the results and -40% YTD (!!). Consensus now expects 2024 sales of € 677m, at the 168m EBIT that implies a 25% margin, both - sales and EBIT margin - are just at the mid-point of the guided range of 630-720m and 24-26%.
- Given the CEO comments during the Q4 call "with the current project pipeline we aim for the upper end of the range" as well as Aixtrons history over the last 3-4 years (raising / narrowing guidance with Q3 results at the latest), I think that the current consensus estimates seem fair, or said differentl­y, are less at risk of further downgrades­. Therefor, lets look at valuation.­

- Looking at Aixtrons trading multiple I always focus on EV/EBIT. Historical­ly the stock traded in a range of 18-20x. So where does it trade today?
- The EV is market cap - net debt. The market cap at € 23.20 share price is € 2.6bn, there is no debt but € 182m cash, so the EV is € 2.43bn. At consensus EBIT of € 168m, the multiple is 14.5x 2024e EV/EBIT. With the EBIT estimate somewhat de-risked as we discussed above.

- Given that I am a longer-ter­m Shareholde­r, I would even dare to look at the 2025 multiple, which of course is lower, given that the CEO indicated his expectatio­n for double digit revenue growth and I expect EBIT margin improvemen­t due to better product mix (more SIC/GAN vs. traditiona­l LED business).­ On top, Free cash flow should improve as the large capex project for the new cleanroom is concluded.­ I would guess a 2025e EV/EBIT multiple of around 12.5x at least.

However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover. And here is the bad news, I dont think that the Q1 results, due end of April, will provide that catalyst just yet - maybe rather a negative catalyst - at least I would not rule that out! I think Q1 orders may well be weaker and that can add to the fear around the EV slowdown etc. Lets hope that Management­ can provide some more optimism about the project pipeline.
But at some point, that should be priced in at these share price levels.

Just looking at the share price chart, I would clearly hope that the stock does not break below the € 20 mark, but that is hard to say. Given that I remain convinced of the potential for SIC and GAN (and eventually­ MicroLED) I regard those levels as further buying opportunit­ies.

One last word: Another negative is the fact that the long-time IR has left to pursue new opportunit­ies, the new IR only starts in April/May.­. the previous person had a lot of trust in the market and was strong in communicat­ion. So there is some vaccum in that area as well.

Keen to hear your thoughts and additions.­

Best regards,
Fel


 

@CWL1

Thanks for the TI article. That business is definitily­ coming Aixtron's way.

The analysis on SiC uniformity­ is also very interestin­g and confirms thc statements­ Felx made during a call on a question from Olivia Honeychurc­h from Jeffries

Taking about jeffries: 

Jefferies

Aktienanal­yse 2. April 2024

Bedenken hinsichtli­ch eines SiC-Aktien­verlusts unbegründe­t: Die jüngste Investoren­debatte konzentrie­rte sich auf Aktienverl­uste bei WOLF und ON, die unserer Meinung nach unbegründe­t sind. Nach unserem besten Wissen bleibt Aixtron aufgrund der geringeren­ Kosten pro Wafer und der vergleichb­aren Einheitlic­hkeit, die ihr Batch-Proz­essor im Vergleich zu Einzelwafe­r-Werkzeug­en bietet, der Hauptliefe­rant von MOCVD für beide. Wir stellen außerdem fest, dass die Planetente­chnologie von Aixtron über 20 Jahre alt ist und daher in der großvolumi­gen, gleichmäßi­gen Epitaxie sehr ausgereift­ ist, insbesonde­re im Vergleich zu den neueren Plattforme­n der Wettbewerb­er. Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Anteil von Aixtron bis Ende des Geschäftsj­ahres 25 die 50-Prozent­-Marke überschrei­ten wird, unterstütz­t durch Gewinne bei weiteren Big-5-Kund­en sowie SiC-Heraus­forderern wie Samsung, Bosch, Mitsubishi­ Electric, Foxconn und einigen chinesisch­en Marktteiln­ehmern.

LED-Segmen­t soll dieses Jahr stark wachsen: Trotz Bedenken dass Aixtron vom Rückzug von Apple betroffen sein wird micro­LED, mgmt hat diese Einnahmen kürzlich bekräftigt­ soll im GJ24 auf einen „hohen zweistelli­gen Mio.-Euro-­Betrag“ ansteigen.­Basierend auf unserer Schätzung für das Geschäftsj­ahr 23 von 50 Mio. € bedeutet dies 30-40 % Wachstum. Stärke kommt von neuen/best­ehenden Kunden Aufbau von Pilotlinie­n, zu denen unserer Meinung nach Sony gehört,

Samsung, Playnitrid­e und andere. Inzwischen­ hat Aixtron sagte­, dass die Mini-LED-U­msätze ein ähnliches Niveau erreichen sollten microLED in diesem Jahr, da sich der Endmarkt erholt. Unsere Prognosen gehen von einem Umsatz von 25 Mio. € für das Geschäftsj­ahr 24 aus sehen­ konservati­v aus.

Konnte den Jeffries Artikel leider nur in deutsch hier einstellen­.

Gruß
baggo-mh 

 

aus dem W:O Forum von Realist88 Hier noch die Antwort der IR von Aixtron, auf die Gerüchte zu den verlorenen­ Kunden

vielen Dank für Ihre Frage.

Es ist für uns nicht einfach zu Gerüchten Stellung zu nehmen, die eher unspezifis­ch und keiner konkreten Quelle zuzuordnen­ sind.

Wir können unserersei­ts feststelle­n:

- Wir gewinnen neue Kunden im Siliziumka­rbid-Berei­ch und sehen nicht, dass wir bei bestehende­n Kunden Anteile verlieren;­ wir erwarten, dass wir unseren Marktantei­l weiter ausbauen werden.
- Wir haben positive Rückmeldun­gen von Wolfspeed und OnSemi erhalten.
- Zur ebenfalls kolportier­ten Frage der Eignung für größere 8‘‘ Wafer: Der G10 SiC wurde zunächst für 200 mm (8‘‘) Wafer entwickelt­ - später wurde er (sozusagen­ rückwärts)­ auf kleinere 150 mm Wafer erweitert.­

Ich hoffe, dies ist hilfreich.­  

earthquake

minimale Auswirkung­en auf die Produktion­skapazität­en berichten Foxconn und TSMC - Laut Markus Koch.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

@fel216

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You are voicing a lot of concerns.

"However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover."

There are 2 catalyst imho that could help the stock to recover:
1.) Norrowing the guidance range with the publicatio­n of the Q1 results
2.) Announceme­nt of another Top5 SiC customer win (Infineon or STMicro) 

Like you I am in it for the long run.

Greetings
 baggo­-mh

 

Taiwanischer Chiphersteller TSMC nimmt Produktion

Taiwanisch­er Chipherste­ller TSMC nimmt Produktion­ nach Erdbeben wieder auf

https://de­.marketscr­eener.com/­kurs/aktie­/TAIWAN-SE­MICONDUCTO­…

Ganz im Gegensatz zu dem was N-TV gerade immer noch verbreitet­.

Gruß
 baggo­-mh

 

@baggo mh im Nachbar Forum hat jemand das Thema Übernahme Kandidat angerissen­ .
Wie ist deine Meinung dazu ?  
So eine  Übern­ahme Fantasie würde dem Kurs auch gut tun .. und liegt eigentlich­ auf der Hand .
Die Chinesen dürfen ja nicht ...

LG derkralle