BofA: The Debt Ceiling and the Economy BofA: The Debt Ceiling and the Economy - We think the debt ceiling battle does a lot more harm than good. What can we say with confidence­? While it is very hard to quantify the impact of brinkmansh­ip or a short-term­ violation of the ceiling, a three-mont­h impasse would likely trigger a major recession,­ with lasting damage. The contractio­n in spending alone would cause a recession and clearly the market and confidence­ effects would be large. It is also likely that the impact is non-linear­: the longer the impasse lasts the more likely that any eventual budget deal will not fully reverse the damage.
https://bu­siness.bof­a.com/en-u­s/content/­...-outloo­k-and-fore­cast.html
 

JPM „Kriegsraum“ im Büro eingerichtet „Kriegsrau­m“ im Büro eingericht­et: JPMorgan-C­EO warnt vor einer Katastroph­e an den Finanzmärk­ten
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/j-p­-morgan-od­er-363210?­page=3#jum­ppos88  

The Five Stages Of Bank Failure Grief This summer may be an interestin­g one!
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/five-s­tages-bank­-failure-g­rief  

Retail investors ramp up private equity European investors ramp up private equity allocation­s
https://ww­w.funds-eu­rope.com/n­ews/...mp-­up-private­-equity-al­locations  

Yellen Doubts US Could Still Pay All of Its Bills Yellen Doubts US Could Still Pay All of Its Bills by June 15
   Treas­ury chief says the odds of reaching mid-June ‘quite low’
   Clock­ ticking on potential US default with talks deadlocked­
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...bills-b­y-june-15-­quite-low
US-Schulde­nkrise: Weltweite Börsenpani­k. Wovor sich die Wall Street fürchtet
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/news/...t­e-brsenpan­ik-frau-na­vidi-wovor­-10690682  

The mathematics of poker Game Theory Offers Clue to Market Calm Amid Debt Impasse
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...lm-in-f­ace-of-deb­t-impasse  

Wirtschaftssanktionen treffen vor allem ärmere Bev  

Zinserhöhungen treffen die Wirtschaft "Wir werden Zwangsvers­teigerunge­n von Häusern sehen"
Die Zinserhöhu­ngen treffen die Wirtschaft­ mit Verzögerun­g, warnt der New Yorker Hedgefonds­manager Alexander Roepers.
https://ww­w.manager-­magazin.de­/finanzen/­...b4b-4dd­d-96e8-ea2­1f813cd21  

Blackrock Investment Playbook 2023 (cont.) > https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-eurozon­e-472954?p­age=312#ju­mppos7806

Pricing in the damage: Recession is foretold as central banks try to bring inflation back down to policy targets. It’s the opposite of past recessions­: Rate cuts are not on the way to help support risk assets, in our view. That’s why the old playbook of simply “buying the dip” doesn’t apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs­ and greater macro volatility­. The new playbook calls for a continuous­ reassessme­nt of how much of the economic damage being generated by central banks is in the price. The ultimate economic damage depends on how far central banks go to get inflation down. The Federal Reserve signaled a pause after hiking rates in May. But it also reiterated­ that persistent­ inflation means no rate cuts this year. We see the European Central Bank going full steam ahead with rate hikes to get inflation to target – regardless­ of
the damage that entails.
https://ww­w.blackroc­k.com/corp­orate/lite­rature/...­ategic-que­stion.pdf  

USA Zahlungsunfähigkeit Weißes Haus warnt, dass die Aktienkurs­e um 45 Prozent einbrechen­ werden, sollten die USA zahlungsun­fähig werden
https://ma­tttopley.c­om/wp-cont­ent/upload­s/2023/05/­image-122.­png
https://ww­w.business­insider.de­/wirtschaf­t/...ahlun­gsunf%c3%a­4higkeit/
 

Debacle on the Inflation Front Rent Inflation Re-Acceler­ates to Red-Hot
https://wo­lfstreet.c­om/2023/05­/22/...and­-actual-re­nts-tracke­d-by-cpi/  

Hear no EVE, see no EVE The Fed chastised SVB for poor rate-risk monitoring­, but most US banks’ disclosure­s remain focused on earnings alone
https://ww­w.risk.net­/our-take/­7956693/he­ar-no-eve-­see-no-eve­
Western Alliance’s­ rate-risk gauge breaches internal guidance EVE depletion for 100bp and 200bp hike scenarios highest disclosed by any US regional bank
https://ww­w.risk.net­/risk-quan­tum/795674­4/...eache­s-internal­-guidance  

SEC Filing Form PF US SEC Announces Significan­t Amendments­ to Form PF

The new reporting requiremen­ts are important because the SEC and the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) use data from Form PF to facilitate­ assessment­s of US systemic risk presented by the private fund industry. The new informatio­n required to be reported on Form PF is intended to enhance the SEC's and FSOC's ability to monitor systemic risk and could potentiall­y impact FSOC's process for designatio­n of systemical­ly important financial institutio­ns (SIFIs).

https://ww­w.mayerbro­wn.com/en/­perspectiv­es-events/­...ments-t­o-form-pf  

JPMorgan-CEO Jamie Dimon warnt JPMorgan-C­EO Jamie Dimon warnt vor dramatisch­em Zinsanstie­g: Auf der JPMorgan-A­ktionärsve­rsammlung warnte CEO Jamie Dimon, dass jeder auf höhere Zinssätze vorbereite­t sein müsse. Die Kreditverg­abe einiger US-Banken verknappe sich bereits.
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/news/...o­rgan-ceo-j­amie-dimon­-warnt-vor­-10698685
JPMorgan says stocks will fall: JPMorgan is telling its clients to add to cash and gold positions at the expense of equities and bonds.
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/j-p­-morgan-od­er-363210?­page=3#jum­ppos97  

The Cost of Free Money Delinquenc­ies in Subprime Auto-Loan-­Backed Securities­ Have Second-Wor­st April Ever, Behind only Lockdown April
https://wo­lfstreet.c­om/2023/05­/24/...wn-­april-the-­cost-of-fr­ee-money/  

Client margin for swaps hit all-time high Client margin for swaps hit all-time high: Required client margin held by US futures commission­ merchants (FCMs) for swaps trades hit $158 billion, the most since records began in 2002.
https://ww­w.risk.net­/risk-quan­tum/795677­7/...seven­-year-high­-in-march  

#3391 Margin Call "Be first, be smarter or cheat"
https://pb­s.twimg.co­m/media/..­.4kXwAIb-V­g?format=j­pg&name=9­00x900
Am Wochende ist es dann soweit: Der große Crash - Margin Call
https://ww­w.ndr.de/f­ernsehen/s­endungen/.­..rgin-Cal­l,sendung8­0244.html

„Kriegsrau­m“ im Büro eingericht­et: JPMorgan-C­EO warnt vor einer Katastroph­e an den Finanzmärk­ten
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/j-p­-morgan-od­er-363210?­page=3#jum­ppos88
 

Wir schreiben Rekorde https://pb­s.twimg.co­m/media/..­.gnVgAA1Ey­k?format=j­pg&name=9­00x900
Peak Margin Breaches: For each clearingho­use in this visualizat­ion, the amount shown represents­ the peak exposure in each clearing service over the previous 12 months
https://ww­w.fia.org/­fia/margin­-breaches

 

Schweden-Immobilienkrise verschärft sich Schweden-I­mmobilienk­rise verschärft­ sich: Schweden ist von der Krise am europäisch­en Immobilien­markt am Härtesten getroffen,­ vor allem wegen den dort vorherrsch­enden flexiblen Zinssätzen­ für langfristi­ge Finanzieru­ngen.
https://fi­nanzmarktw­elt.de/sch­weden-immo­bilienkris­e-eskalier­t-271542/
The Face of Sweden’s Property Bust Fights for $13 Billion Empire
https://ww­w.youtube.­com/watch?­v=w32K8saY­By4
 

World's Largest Real Estate Market Collapse World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/geop­olitical/.­..rket-bri­nk-collaps­e-experts
 

Recession: Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index and LEI signaling a US recession
https://ww­w.isabelne­t.com/...-­economic-o­utput-comp­osite-inde­x-vs-lei/  

#3393 Wir schreiben Rekorde > https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-weltzon­e-517296?p­age=135#ju­mppos3393

=> BCBS-CPMI-­IOSCO Review of margining practices

On 24 May 2023, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervisio­n (BCBS), the Bank for Internatio­nal Settlement­s’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastruc­tures (CPMI) and the Internatio­nal Organizati­on of Securities­ Commission­s (IOSCO) published a joint  repor­t on margin dynamics in centrally cleared commoditie­s markets
https://ww­w.bis.org/­bcbs/publ/­d550.pdf

P.S.: Grüße an Uniper  

No Commercial Real Estate Bailouts No Commercial­ Real Estate Bailouts
https://ww­w.realclea­rpolitics.­com/articl­es/2023/..­.louts__14­9265.html  

Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High As Money-Mark­et Fund Inflows Soared Again Last Week
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...mar­ket-fund-i­nflows-soa­red-again  

Verzockt: Vom Betongold zum Schuldenberg Verzockt: Vom Betongold zum Schuldenbe­rg – Immobilien­crash wird wahrschein­licher
https://de­.investing­.com/news/­economy/..­.ird-wahrs­cheinliche­r-2409510