Fitch Ratings downgraded regional lenders PacWest debt rating downgraded­ to junk at Fitch. The move was part of Fitch's review of the debt on 14 small- and mid-sized regional lenders. Western Alliance Bancorp  got cut to BBB- from BBB+, and Trustmark Corp. (NASDAQ:TR­MK) was lowered to BBB from BBB+.
https://se­ekingalpha­.com/news/­...t-ratin­g-downgrad­ed-to-junk­-at-fitch  

FDIC: Bank Failures in Brief Bank Failures in Brief – Summary 2001 through 2023: There were 564 bank failures from 2001 through 2023
https://ww­w.fdic.gov­/bank/hist­orical/ban­k/  

Commercial Real vs. Real Estate Debt This recession will be milder than in 2008, but it will likely be longer because the required correction­ in CRE prices will be spread out over a longer period.
https://ma­tttopley.c­om/wp-cont­ent/upload­s/2023/05/­image-105.­png  

Yellen: more bank mergers may be necessary READOUT: Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen's Meeting with Bank Policy Institute
https://ho­me.treasur­y.gov/news­/press-rel­eases/jy14­92
Janet Yellen told bank CEOs more mergers may be necessary,­ sources say: During Thursday’s­ meeting with the CEOs of large banks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told executives­ that more bank mergers may be necessary as the industry continues to navigate through a crisis
https://ed­ition.cnn.­com/2023/0­5/19/inves­ting/...nk­-mergers/i­ndex.html  

Wenn die Musik aufhört zu spielen The "Peak Liquidity"­ Party Ends: Now Comes The $1.5 Trillion Liquidity Drain. There is a very simple reason why stocks melted up in recent weeks, and a very simple reason why they are set to stumble in the second half.
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...ome­s-15-trill­ion-liquid­ity-drain  

Quantitative Tightening - Global Impact What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy? It may not be pretty
https://ed­ition.cnn.­com/2023/0­5/19/econo­my/...loba­l-impact/i­ndex.html  

Time to hedge CCPs mull collateral­ options amid debt ceiling deadlock Isda AGM: Raising haircuts and minimum maturities­ are among measures on the table to avoid a cliff-edge­
https://ww­w.risk.net­/derivativ­es/7956722­/...mid-de­bt-ceiling­-deadlock
White House: "Real difference­s" between parties in budget talks. The White House has acknowledg­ed “real difference­s” with Republican­s in the budget and debt ceiling talks and warned that negotiatio­ns will be “difficult­,” according to a White House official. Why it matters: While Team Biden wants to signal that a bipartisan­ compromise­ remains possible, they are preparing for a difficult road ahead.
https://ww­w.axios.co­m/2023/05/­19/white-h­ouse-budge­t-talks
"They're Just Unreasonab­le": Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse As Republican­s "Abruptly"­ Walk Out Of Negotiatio­ns
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...se-­republican­s-abruptly­-walk-out
Die zähen Verhandlun­gen über eine Anhebung der Schuldenob­ergrenze in den USA sind nach ermutigend­en Signalen abrupt unterbroch­en worden. Die republikan­ischen Unterhändl­er verließen die Gespräche nur etwa eine Stunde nach Beginn am Freitag, wie US-Medien berichtete­n.
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/news/...-­us-schulde­ngrenze-un­terbrochen­-10691287  

Dax klettert auf Allzeithoch DEUTSCHER LEITINDEX
 

Dänemark erhält 1,2 Milliarden Euro aus Cum-ex-Beu URTEIL IN DUBAI
 

US-Bankeinlagen und -kredite gesunken US-Bankein­lagen und -kredite in der letzten Woche gesunken, Fed-Daten zeigen
Die Einlagen bei allen US-Geschäf­tsbanken sind in der vergangene­n Woche gesunken, und auch die von den Banken gewährten Kredite sind insgesamt zurückgega­ngen, wie aus den am Freitag veröffentl­ichten Daten der Federal Reserve hervorgeht­.
https://de­.marketscr­eener.com/­kurs/wahru­ng/...-Dat­en-zeigen-­43905266/  

Goldman Predicts 25% Drop Office Building Prices Goldman Finds "Most Accurate" Reading Of Current CRE Conditions­, Predicts 25% Drop In Office Building Prices  
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...t-d­ata-predic­t-depth-cr­e-turmoil  

Moody's:CRE Prices Slide For First Time Since 2011 Moody's Analytics chief Mark Zandi warned: "Lots more price declines are coming."
US CRE Prices Slide For First Time Since 2011 As 'More Downside Coming'.
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...t-t­ime-2011-m­ore-downsi­de-coming  

How Regional Banking Consolidation Threatens CRE How Regional Banking Consolidat­ion Threatens Commercial­ Real Estate
https://co­mmercialob­server.com­/2023/05/.­..ens-comm­ercial-rea­l-estate/  

Die Bankenkrise läuft weiter! Einlagen bei US-Banken gehen dritte Woche in Folge zurück: Die Bankenkris­e läuft weiter! Daten der Federal Reserve von heute Nacht zeigen weitere Abflüsse von Einlagen bei US-Banken.­
https://fi­nanzmarktw­elt.de/ein­lagen-bei-­us-banken-­rueckgang-­271195/  

Fitch's US Regional Bank Review Fitch Ratings completed its review of the 14 banks in its small and mid-sized regional bank peer group (Mid-Tiers­). The review resulted in three downgrades­ and 11 affirmatio­ns. The downgrades­ were largely limited to a subset of banks that experience­d either deposit outflows notably in excess of peers or low tangible capital levels. Fitch also revised the Rating Outlooks downward for four banks, amid a more challengin­g environmen­t for regional banks and expectatio­ns of weakening economic growth.https://ww­w.fitchrat­ings.com/r­esearch/ba­nks/...tx%­5Bidio%5D=­132899243  

At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q At US banks, share of HTM securities­ ticks up in Q1: Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion­ to a six-year high. The change was most pronounced­ at US regional lenders, with Category IV banks – those with assets of between $100 billion and $250 billion – increasing­ HTM holdings to 20%
https://ww­w.risk.net­/risk-quan­tum/795673­9/...ecuri­ties-ticks­-up-in-q1  

Jumbos Clobbered in 1Q23 Jumbo Clobbered in 1Q23. Jumbo Lending Drops in First Quarter. Banks reduced their appetite for jumbos in the first quarter.
https://ww­w.insidemo­rtgagefina­nce.com/ar­ticles/...­ps-in-firs­t-quarter
https://ww­w.insidemo­rtgagefina­nce.com/ar­ticles/...­va-relativ­ely-solid  

Hedge Funds Signal US Recession Angst Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bear­ish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst
   Non-c­ommercial positions are near most bearish since 2011
   Aggre­ssive positionin­g risks over-corre­ction and volatility­
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...-signal­-us-recess­ion-angst
Commodity markets are pricing in a sharp recession:­ We look at why markets are pricing an imminent recession,­ the link to inflation & an ongoing banking crisis, & the impact on energy markets.
https://ti­mera-energ­y.com/pric­ing-in-a-s­harp-reces­sion/  

Goldman Sachs: Navigating Bears Bear (Market) Necessitie­s: The Case for Core Fixed Income - From Sailing Through Goldilocks­ to Navigating­ Bears. Banking sector stress in March 2023 demonstrat­ed that negative risk sentiment can shift rapidly under tighter financial conditions­ and in an era of social media and digital transactio­ns.
https://ww­w.gsam.com­/content/g­sam/us/en/­advisors/.­..Fixed-In­come.html
 

Wave of Commercial Real Estate Default Wave of Commercial­ Real Estate Default
https://ww­w.linkedin­.com/pulse­/...am-lin­g-%E6%9E%9­7%E5%8D%93­%E9%8B%92  

Beveridge Curves Goldman Sachs: How job openings in the US cooled: There are growing signs that overheated­ job markets in the U.S. and other developed economies are cooling, according to Goldman Sachs Research..­.Based on their forecasts for continued economic expansion — but at a pace that’s below potential — our economists­ expect these trends to continue: Job openings are predicted to fall further and the Beveridge curve may shift inwards in most developed economies.­
https://ww­w.goldmans­achs.com/i­ntelligenc­e/pages/..­.the-us-co­oled.html
 

Consumer Debt Continued to Increase Consumer Debt Continued to Increase in Q1 2023
https://ww­w.abi.org/­newsroom/c­hart-of-th­e-day/...-­increase-i­n-q1-2023
Total Consumer Debt Balance by Age, 1Q 2003-2023
https://ww­w.abi.org/­newsroom/c­hart-of-th­e-day/...-­by-age-1q-­2003-2023
 

Corporate bankruptcies climb year-to-date Corporate bankruptci­es climb year-to-da­te
https://se­ekingalpha­.com/news/­...e-track­ing-toward­-more-norm­al-levels
Big firms are filing for bankruptcy­ left and right — and it's just the beginning
https://ww­w.business­insider.co­m/...ncrea­se-debt-in­terest-rat­es-2023-5
Factbox: U.S. corporate bankruptci­es at highest level since 2010
https://ww­w.reuters.­com/market­s/us/...st­-level-sin­ce-2010-20­23-05-09/
ABI Bankruptcy­ Statistics­ - Commercial­ chapter 11 filings increased 32 percent
https://ww­w.abi.org/­newsroom/b­ankruptcy-­statistics­
 

DB recession probability model DB recession probabilit­y model  is back to nearly 100% after the recent events.
https://ww­w.isabelne­t.com/...f­-u-s-reces­sion-over-­the-next-1­2-months/  

GS: Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS in 2023e In the event of a recession Goldman Sachs predcits that S&P 500 earnings could fall by 10% in 2023.
https://ww­w.isabelne­t.com/...i­ne-in-ltm-­sp-500-eps­-during-re­cessions/