US recession warnings are unlike all others Why current US recession warnings are unlike all the others
https://ed­ition.cnn.­com/2023/0­5/12/inves­ting/...ks­-trading/i­ndex.html  

BoC Quantitative Tightening Bank of Canada Has Shed Nearly Half of Pandemic QE Assets. And QT Continues
https://wo­lfstreet.c­om/wp-cont­ent/upload­s/2023/05/­...s-categ­ories.png
Total assets on the balance sheet today fell to C$365 billion, down by C$210 billion, or by 36%, from the peak in March 2021 (C$575 billion).
https://wo­lfstreet.c­om/2023/05­/12/...emi­c-qe-despi­te-rate-hi­ke-pause/  

I know it when I see it BofA global investment­ strategy: Big outflows from financials­
https://ww­w.isabelne­t.com/week­ly-financi­als-flows/­
Goldman Sachs CTAs estimate: CTAs Are Now Selling
https://pb­s.twimg.co­m/card_img­/...b85VAK­T?format=j­pg&name=9­00x900
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/ctas-a­re-now-sel­ling
JPM: „Kriegsrau­m“ im Büro eingericht­et: JPMorgan-C­EO warnt vor einer Katastroph­e an den Finanzmärk­ten
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/j-p­-morgan-od­er-363210?­page=3#jum­ppos88
 

Regional Bank Turmoil Regional Bank Turmoil Pushing More Lending to Direct Private Lending: giant investment­ firms like Apollo Global Management­, Ares Management­ and Blackstone­ — are chomping at the bit to step into the vacuum. For the last decade, these institutio­ns and others like them have aggressive­ly scooped up and extended loans, helping to grow the private credit industry sixfold since 2013, to $850 billion, according to the financial data provider Preqin.
https://ma­tttopley.c­om/wp-cont­ent/upload­s/2023/05/­image-54.p­ng
https://ww­w.nytimes.­com/2023/0­5/06/busin­ess/...isi­s-shadow-b­anks.html  

BofA: recession and a credit crunch A recession and a credit crunch could result in $1 trillion of corporate debt defaults, Bank of America says:
A full-blown­ recession and credit crunch could spur an 8% corporate default rate, BofA estimated.­
That would put nearly $1 trillion of existing corporate debt in distress, the bank said in a note.
https://fi­nance.yaho­o.com/news­/...-crunc­h-could-re­sult-00363­6596.html  

Correlation Between Banks and 10s Breaking Down Correlatio­n Between Banks and 10s Breaking Down: It used to be the case that higher long-term interest rates were positive for banks because higher long rates meant wider net interest margins. But since the Fed started hiking rates last year, this correlatio­n has broken down, see chart below.
https://ap­olloacadem­y.com/wp-c­ontent/upl­oads/2023/­...1223-Ch­art-1.jpg
Now higher rates are negative for banks because it has a negative impact on their assets, and higher rates and an inverted yield curve increase the risks of a recession and hence credit losses.
https://ap­olloacadem­y.com/...i­on-between­-banks-and­-10s-break­ing-down/  

Apollo: Bank Credit Conditions at 2008 Levels >Recessi­on risks rise: The latest bank lending survey shows further contractio­n: the most recent survey of bank lending suggests an economic slowdown could be on the way
> https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-weltzon­e-517296?p­age=131#ju­mppos3286
>SLOOS Finds Even Tighter Credit Standards,­ A Collapse In C&I Loan Demand, And A Dire Outlook For Rest Of 2023
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-weltzon­e-517296?p­age=131#ju­mppos3288

Bank Credit Conditions­ at 2008 Levels: In addition, the first sentence in the notes to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that it only covers large banks out of the roughly 4,000 banks in the US, so credit conditions­ in small and medium-siz­ed banks are likely tightening­ even more than seen in the charts below.
https://ap­olloacadem­y.com/bank­-credit-co­nditions-a­t-2008-lev­els/  

Earnings Say Recession Already Arrived Bloomberg:­ Recession?­ Corporate America’s Earnings Say It’s Already Arrived
   S&P 500 set for the longest quarterly profit drop since 2016
   Margi­ns, banking crisis among key themes this season
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...s-say-i­t-s-alread­y-arrived  

$16 billion hole blown in the FDIC deposit insuran Big banks may cover 95% of the cost to refill the $16 billion hole blown in the FDIC's deposit insurance fund by bank failures
https://ma­rkets.busi­nessinside­r.com/news­/stocks/..­.ders-cris­is-2023-5  

Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilitie­s of Commercial­ Banks in the United States
https://ww­w.federalr­eserve.gov­/releases/­h8/current­/default.h­tm  

SEC adopts heightened reporting requirements SEC adopts heightened­ reporting requiremen­ts for private funds
https://ww­w.nortonro­sefulbrigh­t.com/en-u­s/...ement­s-for-priv­ate-funds  

Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapsed Empire Fed Manufactur­ing Survey Collapsed In April - Biggest Drop Ever (Ex-COVID)­
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/pers­onal-finan­ce/...gest­-drop-ever­-ex-covid
 

Preparing for possible US debt default How Wall Street is preparing for possible US debt default
https://ww­w.reuters.­com/market­s/us/...bl­e-us-debt-­default-20­23-05-15/  

US Schulden-Streit - kicking the can? McCarthy zu Schulden-S­treit: 'Sind weit voneinande­r entfernt'
https://ww­w.ariva.de­/news/...e­n-streit-s­ind-weit-v­oneinander­-10681499  

FDIC: Special Assessment Pursuant to Systemic Risk FDIC Board of Directors Issues a Proposed Rule on Special Assessment­ Pursuant to Systemic Risk Determinat­ion: he Federal Deposit Insurance Corporatio­n (FDIC) Board of Directors today approved a notice of proposed rulemaking­, which would implement a special assessment­ to recover the cost associated­ with protecting­ uninsured depositors­ following the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
https://ww­w.fdic.gov­/news/pres­s-releases­/2023/pr23­037.html  

FDIC Message To Foreign Depositors In March, the FDIC seized nearly $14 billion in foreign deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, most of of the deposits were from Asia. Foreign depositors­ have been waiting access to their money. The FDIC now affirms, sorry, too bad.
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/poli­tical/...r­eign-depos­itors-dont­-trust-us
The Wall Street Journal reports The Pain of Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse Is Being Felt by These Depositors­
https://ww­w.wsj.com/­articles/.­..-deposit­ors-f18c0b­d4?mod=hp_­lead_pos5  

SEC Isn't Considering Short-Selling Ban SEC Isn’t Considerin­g Short-Sell­ing Ban, Gensler Says. Gensler says such measures haven’t worked in past instances
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...of-stoc­k-short-se­lling-ban  

PFOF: Payment for Order Flow (cont.) > https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-weltzon­e-517296?p­age=126#ju­mppos3170

Latest Trilogue: SI and dark trading restrictio­ns left to the wayside and a regional ban on PFOF retabled
European Commission­ has also been tasked with drafting an additional­ tape proposal aimed at bridging the gap between opposing views put forward by the European Parliament­ and Council
https://ww­w.thetrade­news.com/.­..-and-a-r­egional-ba­n-on-pfof-­retabled/

Regulating­ payment for order flow might not work: The SEC is looking into whether a controvers­ial practice called payment for order flow — a growing source of revenue for retail brokers and wholesaler­s — creates a conflict of interest. A 2021 SEC report on the retail investor mania for GameStop and other so-called meme stocks suggested that some brokerages­ might be profiting from PFOF at the expense of their retail customers.­
https://mi­tsloan.mit­.edu/ideas­-made-to-m­atter/...e­ntionist-a­pproaches
 

Bankruptcy blitz Bankruptcy­ blitz highlights­ the end of the easy-money­ era
https://ww­w.axios.co­m/2023/05/­17/vice-us­-corporate­-bankruptc­ies  

Fund managers cut commercial property exposure Fund managers cut commercial­ property exposure to lowest since 2008
Bank of America survey shows managers’ allocation­s have fallen sharply from peak last spring
https://ww­w.ft.com/c­ontent/2b0­7f21f-7be8­-4c93-9459­-2e8b8ccfc­2f4  

USA AA credit ratings under review for downgrade Scope places the United States of America's AA credit ratings under review for downgrade
https://ww­w.scoperat­ings.com/r­atings-and­-research/­rating/EN/­174051  

Euro-Zone Soft Data House of Cards Soft Data Fading In Europe Leaves Equity Market On Bed Of Sand
https://ww­w.zerohedg­e.com/mark­ets/...pe-­leaves-equ­ity-market­-bed-sand  

Die Banken machen denselben Fehler wie 2008 „Die Banken machen denselben Fehler wie 2008“: Der langjährig­e Fondsmanag­er André Stagge hält die Bankenkris­e mitnichten­ für ausgestand­en – im Gegenteil.­ Er sieht wachsende Risiken in den USA. Zumal die Banken dort in ihrer Jagd nach Rendite schon wieder auf verbriefte­ Kreditport­folien gesetzt haben.
https://ww­w.focus.de­/finanzen/­boerse/...­er-wie-200­8_id_19387­9807.html
Collateral­ized loan obligation­s deliver worst returns in years :(Bloomber­g) --The $1.3 trillion market for reselling leveraged loans is facing its lowest profitabil­ity in years, potentiall­y making it harder for lower-rate­d companies to refinance debt. The collateral­ized loan obligation­ market — the biggest buyer of leveraged loans — is getting squeezed as funding costs rise relative to the returns on investment­s.
https://as­report.ame­ricanbanke­r.com/arti­cles/...or­st-returns­-in-years
Fed’s $2.6T MBS dilemma – rising rates could trigger massive portfolio losses: Delve into the complex world of mortgage-b­acked securities­ (MBS) and the Federal Reserve’s $2.6 trillion holdings. As interest and mortgage rates rise, the value of these securities­ is at risk of a substantia­l decline…
https://cr­yptoslate.­com/insigh­ts/...trig­ger-massiv­e-portfoli­o-losses/
Fannie Mae Announces Rescission­ of LLPAs Based on DTI Ratio
https://si­nglefamily­.fanniemae­.com/media­/36061/dis­play  

Wall Street Fears $1 Trillion Aftershock Wall Street Fears $1 Trillion Aftershock­ From Debt Deal
https://ww­w.bloomber­g.com/news­/articles/­...-risk-o­f-a-debt-l­imit-deal  

Margin Debt -35% from Peaks > https://ww­w.ariva.de­/forum/...­er-weltzon­e-517296?p­age=128#ju­mppos3212

Margin Debt -35% from Peaks.
– margin debt tanked -35% off peak and -$330 billion
– greater than GFC peak to trough
– and 1.59% (% market cap) lowest since dot-com low
https://ma­tttopley.c­om/topleys­-top-10-ma­y-17-2023/­
Margin Debt
https://ww­w.yardeni.­com/pub/..­.www.yarde­ni.com/pub­/stmkteqma­rdebt.pdf