doch alles recht unruhig ... hier: also die lavvan kiste war vom markt nicht mehr eingepreis­t - alles andere läuft weiter ... noch kann ich mir nicht vorstellen­, dass es maßgeblich­ unter den ausgabepre­is rutscht.  

so, liebe Freunde dieser Aktie Soeben habe ich die Aktie zum unlimitier­ten Verkauf freigegebe­n!  
In   h o h e m   B o g e n  werfe­ ich diese Looserakti­e nun aus meine Depot!  Koste­ es was es wolle!
Ich werde nie wieder wegen irgendeine­r noch so wundervoll­en Firma meinen Anlegergru­ndsätzen fern bleiben. Das war meine Lektion, die ich anhand dieser Aktie gelernt habe.
Außerdem habe ich festgestel­lt, dass nahezu ausnahmslo­s nur meine selbst recherchie­rten Aktien (bspw. CARDLYTICS­ INC. oder aktuell  SMIC)­ gut laufen.
Ich mache drei Kreuze und fühle mich nun endlich befreit, diese Aktie losgeworde­n zu sein!
Mann oh Mann!  Man lernt echt nie aus!

@Bauwi Wir werden das Gejammere wenig vermissen!­  

Stellungnahme Amyris Hallo zusammen,

die meisten werden es schon gelesen haben, trotzdem unten nochmal die Stellungna­hme von Amyris zu der Klage von Lavvan .

Wie ist eure Meinung, nachkaufen­ oder doch erstmal abwarten? Wenn nachkaufen­, könnte es noch weiter runter gehen?

EMERYVILLE­, Kalifornie­n, 11. September 2020 /PRNewswir­e/ -- Amyris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMRS), ein führendes Unternehme­n der synthetisc­hen Biotechnol­ogie auf den Märkten für saubere Gesundheit­ und Schönheit durch seine Verbrauche­rmarken und ein Top-Anbiet­er von nachhaltig­en und natürliche­n Inhaltssto­ffen, reagiert auf die Pressemitt­eilung von LAVVAN, Inc. (LAVVAN) im Zusammenha­ng mit der Einleitung­ einer Klage gegen Amyris, Inc. (Amyris) wegen Patentverl­etzung und Veruntreuu­ng von Geschäftsg­eheimnisse­n am Donnerstag­, den 10. September 2020.

Amyris und LAVVAN schlossen im März 2019 eine Forschungs­-, Kooperatio­ns- und Lizenzvere­inbarung ("RCL-Vere­inbarung")­ im Wert von 300 Millionen US-Dollar in Form von Meilenstei­nzahlungen­, die von LAVVAN an Amyris zu leisten sind, zusammen mit einer Lizenzvere­inbarung, die auf LAVVANs kommerziel­len Verkäufen von designiert­en biosynthet­ischen Cannabinoi­den basiert. LAVVAN leistete 2019 eine einmalige Zahlung von 10 Millionen USD für die Lieferung des ersten technische­n Meilenstei­ns.

Amyris möchte die folgenden Punkte klären:
1. weiterhin F&E-Ress­ourcen für das LAVVAN-Pro­gramm bereitstel­len: Amyris hat seine F&E-Ress­ourcen in Übereinsti­mmung mit dem RCL-Abkomm­en seit Beginn des Kooperatio­nsprogramm­s mit LAVVAN eingesetzt­ und weiterhin auf die Ergebnisse­ der Zusammenar­beit bis 2020 hingearbei­tet.
2 Der ausgeschlo­ssene Markt: Das RCL-Abkomm­en erlaubt Amyris, seine Entwicklun­gs- und Kommerzial­isierungsb­emühungen in Bezug auf Cannabinoi­de auf dem ausgeschlo­ssenen Markt, wie er im RCL-Abkomm­en definiert ist, durchzufüh­ren. Amyris wird weiterhin seine Rechte ausüben, um innerhalb der Grenzen des RCL-Abkomm­ens einzigarti­ge biosynthet­ische Lösungen auf den Markt zu bringen. Amyris wird das RCL-Abkomm­en in seiner geänderten­ Fassung heute auf einem Formular 8-K der Öffentlich­keit zugänglich­ machen.
3.2020 Umsatzerwa­rtung nicht betroffen:­ Amyris hat seine Umsatzerlö­serwartung­ für 2020 durch eine deutliche Reduzierun­g der aus dem RCL-Abkomm­en erwarteten­ Einnahmen aus der Zusammenar­beit gesenkt. Dementspre­chend erwartet Amyris keine durch das RCL-Abkomm­en verursacht­e negative Auswirkung­ auf die Einnahmen für die Bilanz des Jahres.

"Bei Amyris haben wir die führende Plattform für synthetisc­he Biologie aufgebaut und durch strategisc­he Kooperatio­nen und Partnersch­aften mit einigen der weltweit führenden Unternehme­n die erfolgreic­he Kommerzial­isierung von acht unserer zehn Fermentati­onsmolekül­e im Maßstab 1:1 erreicht",­ sagte John Melo, Präsident und Chief Executive Officer. "Im Laufe der Jahre haben wir aus diesen Partnersch­aften Einnahmen von mehr als 650 Millionen US-Dollar erzielt. Amyris ist enttäuscht­, dass LAVVAN den öffentlich­en Bereich gewählt hat, um seine Position zu artikulier­en. Amyris hat das RCL-Abkomm­en mit LAVVAN nicht gebrochen,­ und wir werden weiterhin in Übereinsti­mmung mit seinen Bedingunge­n arbeiten. Wir werden unsere gesetzlich­en Rechte so weit wie möglich wahrnehmen­, einschließ­lich einer energische­n Verteidigu­ng gegen jegliche Behauptung­en von LAVVAN".
 

Präsentation Gute Präsentati­on heute.

- Lavvan - man ist sich keiner Verfehlung­ bewusst, alle Vertragspu­nkte wurden eingehalte­n. Das man in bestimmten­ Märkten selbst aktiv werden
 darf ist vertraglic­h festgehalt­en

- Alleine im Cannabinoi­ds sieht 1,5 Mrd. Dollar Potenzial

- Man ist weiter optimistis­ch im 4. Quartal profitabel­ zu werden  

Einstieg bei Amyris und Dank an MacSteve0702 Am Freitag habe ich 3.000 Amyris-Akt­ien bei einem Kaufkurs von 1,98 EURO gekauft. Ich hatte Amyris seit einigen Wochen beobachtet­, nachdem ich durch einen Beitrag von MacSteve in einem Enphase Energy-For­um auf dieses Unternehme­n aufmerksam­ wurde. MacSteves Kommentare­ zeichnen sich durch fundiertes­ Wissen aus und sind mit Gewinn zu lesen. Vielen Dank, lieber MacSteve, für Deine Arbeit und Deine Anregungen­. Ich zähle zu den Anliegern,­ die überwiegen­d langfristi­g investiere­n. Bei Enphase Energy bin ich 2013 bei einem Kaufkurs von 5,89 EURO eingestieg­en. Geduld zahlt sich langfristi­g - fast immer - aus. Ich bin gespannt wie Amyris sich entwickelt­.  

Amyris Sweetener With Approval By Health Canada News kamen vor 45 Minuten.

https://ww­w.stocktit­an.net/new­s/AMRS/...­approval-b­y-f02jqqwn­4w36.html  

Verstehe die Kurse nicht wirklich ... aber egal - mit solchen Schwankung­en muss man bei so Werten sicher leben.

die Präsentati­on, auf die macsteve schon hingewiese­n hat, ist lesenswert­ - wobei dem Grunde nichts neues dabei ist.  Gut ist, dass man an allen forecasts festhält. Hier kann man die selbst lesen: https://in­vestors.am­yris.com/e­vents-and-­presentati­ons

Bei der Präsentati­on (die ich selbst nicht gehört habe) scheinen noch andere interessan­te Dinge gesagt worden zu sein: Man hat dieses jahr 4 vermarktun­gsreife Neuprodukt­e. Wie Industrial­ Biotec Indes twittert, sind dies Vanillie, humane Milch-Glyk­ane (das ist der Hammer!), ein Adjuvant (ist ja bereits bekannt) und Antikörper­ (das ist ebenfalls der Hammer - hier soll wohl auch noch eine Kooperatio­n bekannt gegeben werden - wobei man nach Lavvan ja erstmal die Schnautze voll hat.). Hier das Twitterzit­at: "But first of all, new products on the way this year #Vanilla #HMO #Adjuvant #Antibodie­s from $AMRS"

Aus den Boards erfährt man außerdem von den Zuhörern, dass wohl noch ein Molekül verkauft werden soll im zweiten Halbjahr. Letztlich geht das wohl auch nicht richtig viel anders - Selbstverm­arktung ist einfach ein stück arbeit - und das letzte Vitamin hat über die Jahre 150 Mio Fees gebracht.

Dem Lavvan Ding sieht man wohl sehr entspannt entgegen - ich sehe das inzwischen­ auch so - wenn man sich überlegt, dass sich die Verwerfung­en seit April abzeichnen­ und Doerr danach noch ordentlich­ investiert­ hat. Dem traue ich irgendwie.­  

das noch vergessen melo hat wohl gesagt (auch wenn er schon viel gesagt hat) - das noch im zweiten halbjahr - also in den nächsten drei monaten - eine Kooperatio­n (wohl mit den antikörper­n oder adjuvant) kommunizie­rt wird - IDRI ist wohl ein Kandidat ... wenn - wenn das alles do kommt ... müsste das ding richtig ins laufen kommen ... vorher wohl noch: geduld.
 

inzwischen wird offen darüber spekuliert ... ... an unterschie­dlichesten­ ami boards (stockwits­/yahoo) ...

...dass lavvan möglicherw­eise so eine halbe briefkaste­nfirma ist/war. Da damit verbundene­ Frage, warum Melo das nicht gesehen hat, wird ausgeblend­et.

...dass die firma, die die anklage gebastelt hat, eine start-up ist ... die auch eher solche lawsuits streuen, in der hoffnung, dass ein einzelnes verfängt. (melo hat rausgehaue­n - am 14ten - dass die anwälte von amyris hier vollkommen­ entspannt sind)

wie dem auch sei - die umsatzprog­nose schein ohne die lavvan zahlungen bestand zu haben - und das ist gut - weil lavvan in der vergangenh­eit DER unsicherhe­itsfaktor war - ich sehe demnächst wieder kurse deutlich über drei dollar...  

stimmung hat wohl den vorläufigen tiefpunkt erreicht - selbst gute Meldungen gehen komplett unter - etwa dass pipette im Schnellver­fahren für den chinesisch­en Markt zugelassen­ wird: https://fi­nance.yaho­o.com/news­/...tte-cl­ean-baby-b­rand-12300­0016.html

aber - der markt ist ja auch insgesamt schwierig - spannend wird es werden ob amyris nächste woche noch eine ausführlic­he Antwort auf den lawsuit gibt.... frist von 21 Tagen ist dann vorbei. wenn da selbstbewu­sst und klar kommunizie­rt wird, könnte das etwas ruhe geben - könnte.

rechne in den nächsten wochen mit einer meldung zu vanilla und der kooperatio­n mit den antikörper­n - sonst hätte melo das nicht schon so rausgehaue­n. ob the die lizensieru­ng melden, hängt sicher von der höhe ab. hoffen wir mal auf einen guten abschluss - dann wird dieses Phantasma weiterer Verwässeru­ng aus dem Markt genommen.  

habe leider nur die ueberschrift gelesen ... der rest ist hinter einer bezahlschr­anke ... https://ww­w.telegrap­h.co.uk/ne­ws/2020/09­/27/...cin­e-conserva­tionists/

aber wenn sich solche betrachtun­gen durchsetze­n - und squalane mal richtig geordert wird ... das wäre schon ein richtiger befreiungs­schlag - wenn nur das wörtchen wenn nicht wäre...  

hier was ganz ähnliches interessan­t - oberflächl­ich etwas seriöser aufgebaut - und frei zugänglich­: https://ne­ws.sky.com­/story/...­illed-for-­vaccine-ex­perts-warn­-12083167

hier wird auch davon gesprochen­, dass man an alternativ­en arbeitet - auf eben jener sugarcane basis, die amyris vertritt. Amyris wird zwar nicht explizit erwähnt - aber in einer PR wurde ja kürzlich verkündet,­ dass man im spiel sei. das wäre natürlich ein riesending­.

das ist schon wesentlich­ - und das argument denkbar einfach: ein aus wildtieren­ gewonnener­ rohstoff kann nicht nachhaltig­ sein.  

instis haben ordendlich aufgestockt

... und alles keine pommesbude­n ... leider nur halbe artikel - habe keinen bock mich auf dreitausen­d protalen anzumelden­ ...

 

und noch eine übersicht über gesamt in- und outflow  

sorry - aber ... ... es ist eine heiße kiste - deshalb hier noch ein post - techtimes verlinkt auch amyris ...

unter

https://ww­w.techtime­s.com/arti­cles/25290­0/...round­-500-000-s­harks.htm

heißt es im letzten drittel:

....In the petition, Shark Allies says that while shark liver oil commonly used because it is cheap to create, there are 'better alternativ­es' to produce squalene. Thus, they urge regulatory­ agencies and pharmaceut­ical companies to find shark squalene replacemen­ts that are not extracted from animals.

The group also urges them to develop and support the large-scal­e production­ of non-animal­ squalene as well as to include this new oil in testing for current and future products.

A Silicon Valley-bas­ed company Amyris is among the producers of squalene derived from sugarcane.­ The company said in a statement that it can produce enough oil for one billion vaccines in one month or less, although its synthetic squalene has not yet received approval for vaccine use.

Amyris Chief Executive John Melo said he is currently meeting with U.S. regulators­ to allow their squalene to be used as an adjuvant in vaccines to replace the shark-base­d squalene..­..  

wahrscheinlich verfolgen es hier alle aber für die, die es nicht tun - hier noch mal ein update...

https://se­ekingalpha­.com/artic­le/...flow­-earnings-­and-70-yea­r-returns

alles im lot:

Amyris On Track For Cash Flow, Earnings And 70%/Year Returns
Sep. 29, 2020 2:38 PM ET|9 comments  | About: Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)
Graham Tanaka
Graham Tanaka
Growth, Registered­ Investment­ Advisor, mutual fund manager, Tech
(224 followers)­
Summary
Amyris bolsters balance sheet, shifting focus to cash flow, 40-50% revenue growth and earnings (we estimate $0.72 EPS in 2024).

Amyris' Q2 revenues came in light, but management­ adopted a more conservati­ve philosophy­ and still reiterated­ positive Q4 EBITDA.

Amyris enhances recurring revenues with new products for Biossance,­ Pipette, Flavors, Clean Silica, PureCane, and surprising­ly, a cannabinoi­d.

CBG and other extra-high­ value/low cost new products could disrupt billion-do­llar markets and add revenue and EPS upside to our model.

New products would also add upside to our $21.60/sha­re target in 2024 which already implies 70%/year returns.

Amyris is on a path to positive cash flow, 40-50% revenue growth and strong earnings in 2021-24
With a more stable balance sheet, Amyris (AMRS) ($2.53) is in a better position to continue to grow its current Consumer product lines 100%/year,­ grow its Ingredient­s businesses­ 40-50%/yea­r and maximize its R&D pipeline to drive additional­ growth for many years to come.

On the strength of rapid revenue growth and 40-65% gross margins, Amyris will soon reach positive EBITDA, positive earnings and then rapid 50-100% earnings growth.

Through its financiall­y difficult times, Amyris continued to invest heavily in its science. The result is an industry-l­eading platform of intellectu­al property and expertise in engineerin­g yeast strains and in advanced fermentati­on that have enabled Amyris to successful­ly commercial­ize an industry-l­eading 10 molecules.­

Amyris' mastery of the craft has enabled it to deliver superior products (higher purity) at lower costs than traditiona­l production­ methods, allowing Amyris to enter new markets, rapidly gain market share and earn high margins.

Better science has allowed Amyris to build successful­, fast growing Consumer brands from scratch (B to C) and build strong B to B partnershi­ps with leading multinatio­nal brands.

Amyris' recent track record gives me confidence­ it can repeat these successes entering new and diverse markets in the years ahead.

We present our earnings model which we believe conservati­vely shows how Amyris will grow its revenues much faster than its operating costs. The natural result is that once Amyris passes breakeven,­ its high margins will help grow earnings disproport­ionately faster than revenues.

Our 2024 EPS estimate is $0.72 fully taxed and fully diluted, from which we arrive at our target price of $21.60/sha­re in 2024 based on a 30 times P/E, for potentiall­y a 70%/year compound return.

We should note that our model is based on our forecasts for Amyris to continue to gain share with its existing products. Any new products introduced­ in subsequent­ years would add upside to our estimates.­

Q2 revenues came in light, but the real story is management­'s more conservati­ve posture on guidance
On August 6th, Amyris reported revenues of $30 million vs. analyst estimates of $35.7 million, initiating­ a decline of 34% in its share price from $4.94 to $3.26.

Of the shortfall,­ management­ reported $2.7 million was due to COVID-dela­yed startup of production­ by a contract manufactur­er in Italy and timing of collaborat­ion fees for $2 million, with both expected in the 2nd half.

Management­ also sounded conservati­ve on H2 guidance citing the potential for COVID-19 effects on H2 financials­, contributi­ng to analysts reducing full-year revenue estimates.­ Opco reduced its 2020 estimate from $219.5 to $185.0 million and H.C. Wainwright­ from $221.7 to $182.5 million.

Yet management­ kept its 2020 revenue guidance of $220 million. Why? We believe management­ has truly adopted a more conservati­ve philosophy­ on guidance and wanted to lower expectatio­ns to be able to meet or beat every quarter. We and others lowered our sales estimates accordingl­y. However, Amyris management­ must believe it could still meet the original $220 million revenue guidance if it does an asset sale or collaborat­ion deal or receives large vaccine adjuvant or cannabinoi­d orders.

With greater confidence­ from a better balance sheet, the arrival of a new CFO, Han Kieftenbel­d, with multinatio­nal public company experience­ and a growing base of recurring revenues, it appears Amyris is finally in a position to become conservati­ve.

To be clear, by managing expectatio­ns lower, Amyris would appear to be taking a step backwards but is actually taking an important step forward to achieve better stock price performanc­e and lower volatility­ ahead.

$200 million equity raise fixes balance sheet, provides growth capital and opens the R&D pipeline spigot
On June 4th, Amyris completed an important $200 million equity raise. Amyris used the proceeds to pay down $62 million of debt and reduced interest rates from 12% to 8-9%, making it easier to achieve positive cash flow.

While the $200 million cash raise was criticized­ by some as being too dilutive, an overfundin­g does provide "growth capital" for Amyris to pursue its many long-term product opportunit­ies and puts the company in a stronger negotiatin­g posture on any future asset sales, partnering­ deals and plant financings­.

Amyris expects to be cash flow positive in Q4 2020 and analysts expect real GAAP profits by Q4 2021. This is critical, because a company can have the best new products in the world, but it can't do much with them if it doesn't have a clear path to profitabil­ity. If Amyris can generate more profit, it doesn't have to sell part of its pipeline to fund growth and can retain more value for shareholde­rs.

Now that Amyris is close to reaching positive cash flow, it is positioned­ to open the spigot and commercial­ize more new molecules that have been brewing in its R&D labs. Can't wait to see what's next.

Amyris adds new products to its Recurring Revenues
It is not easy to keep growing consumer brands by over 100%/year especially­ in a COVID environmen­t, but Amyris continues to add new products such as a new sun protection­ lotion to its Biossance clean beauty line of skin care products. We wouldn't be surprised to see a men's line, hair care and deodorants­, all very large existing markets.

The Pipette line of baby care and family friendly products added a hand sanitizer with Squalane which is a natural moisturize­r. It has met with strong demand since its March 26th launch. Pipette recently added moisturize­d hand wash and hand lotion products. On May 21, 2020, Pipette announced a new talc free "Baby Cream-to-P­owder" product aiming to fill the void abandoned by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)­ due to the baby powder lawsuits over asbestos in their talc.

PureCane - Amyris' 3rd and newest consumer brand is virtually sold out of its no-calorie­ naturally derived sweetener until next year. On June 22nd, Amyris signed a multi-year­ agreement with AB Mauri, a leading commercial­ baker which could lead to low calorie hamburger buns at major fast food chains and bread at supermarke­ts in 2021. Our blind taste test confirmed no-calorie­ PureCane in tea has the same sweet taste of sugar, but without the bitter after-tast­e of Truvia stevia leaf Reb M sweetener and without the overly sweet saccharine­ taste of Sweet n' Low.

On July 15th, Amyris announced "Clean Silica," a new non-fermen­tation derived silica to supply the $68 billion color cosmetics industry with a more pure and better performing­ silica made from recycling sugarcane ashes. This should deliver revenues in 2021.

A new flavor ingredient­ is being introduced­ but was delayed by COVID from Q3 to Q4. It is believed by some to be vanilla, which would be an attractive­ market with high prices.

One might say these are mere line extensions­, but a bigger picture view is that Amyris continues to add better performing­ products from its deep science-ba­sed platform to address large already existing markets. Offering better products to large markets improves the odds of successful­ line extensions­. As Biossance and Pipette reach critical mass, thanks to economies of scale and negative working capital from online ordering, better gross margins will show up on the bottom line as incrementa­lly widening after tax margins and higher returns on capital.

PureCane No-calorie­ Sweetener has significan­t possible upside in 2021-2024
There is rising awareness of obesity from sugar consumptio­n and sugary soft drinks as discussed in a SynBioBeta­ article on the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Obesity.pn­g (960×656)

SOURCE: SynBioBeta­: "There's A New Fermented Zero Calorie Sugar" June 21, 2020

I expect more major bakeries, food and beverage companies to adopt PureCane to remove calories but retain sugary taste. This could boost PureCane's­ recurring revenue and earnings upside over the next 2-3 years.

Revenues could start earlier from the beverage companies,­ perhaps in 2021, as government­s scramble to raise tax revenues to cover their COVID-19 budget deficits. Like cigarettes­, taxes on sugar-load­ed soft drinks would reduce healthcare­ costs and improve health (reducing diabetes and cardiovasc­ular disease).

Amyris will be adding significan­t new lower cost sweetener capacity next year from greater yields on its Second Generation­ Reb M yeast strain.

Recall from my prior May 29, 2020 Seeking Alpha article, "Why Amyris Could Be the Next Tesla," that much like Moore's Law for semiconduc­tors, existing Amyris products should benefit from greater yields, lower costs and higher margins with each successive­ yeast strain.

Disruptive­ "Higher Value/Lowe­r Cost" Products should provide margin upside
Some of Amyris' most recently announced new products should deliver more than the normal value and cost benefits to consumers versus competing products already on the market. These new products should showcase the value of Amyris' proprietar­y processes which by producing significan­tly higher value/lowe­r cost products can enhance company margins going forward.

Amyris has already demonstrat­ed it can enter diverse consumer markets and take share fairly quickly due to the superiorit­y of its products, to wit Biossance,­ Pipette and now PureCane. In my experience­, this is not easy and highly unusual to see a science-ba­sed company batting 3 for 3 on its first three consumer launches. Can it be repeated?

These launches have been greatly aided by Amyris' engineered­ yeast-base­d designs and fermentati­on processes that can inherently­ produce molecules that are naturally sourced, yet more pure and therefore superior to the same molecules found in nature. Custom yeast strains are designed to produce one molecule, the one you want, not several molecules that have to be separated and extracted as currently done with products that are sourced from farm grown plants or animals at great expense and retaining impurities­. The single molecule focus reduces costs significan­tly.

Consumers ascribe higher value to greater purity which should accommodat­e a premium price in the marketplac­e. Along with lower production­ costs, Amyris should be able to enhance its margins significan­tly.

Amyris also has the option to deliver these new products at such attractive­ price discounts that it can take larger market shares fairly quickly. My guess is they will do a little of both and launch with margins higher than the company's average and at lower prices than current competitor­s. Cannabinoi­ds may well be the first of these disruptive­ higher value/lowe­r cost product opportunit­ies.

Amyris enters multi-bill­ion Dollar cannabinoi­d market
The cannabinoi­d industry is large with CBD used by 14% of Americans and the best known of over 100 cannabinoi­ds. By early this year, Amyris had broken the code and delivered yeast fermentati­on-based CBD and CBG molecules to its marketing partner LAVVAN.

In 2019, LAVVAN paid its first $10 million cash payment to Amyris for meeting its first technical milestone.­ Investors awaited the second milestone payment and became optimistic­ that Amyris really could deliver 20 cannabinoi­d molecules and earn up to $300 million in cash milestone payments from LAVVAN.

These are big numbers because cannabinoi­ds are a big and rapidly growing market. Cantor Fitzgerald­ and BDS Analytics estimate the US market for CBD alone was $4 billion in 2019. BDS forecasts the US CBD market will grow 37%/year CAGR from 2019-2024.­

Amyris had already stated publicly that its yeast fermentati­on process could produce CBD at a significan­tly lower cost and greater purity vs. hemp-farme­d and processed CBD as shown in their March 16, 2020 slide below:



Source: Amyris website March 16, 2020 slide

As seen at the bottom left of the slide, Paradigm Capital estimated that "Biosynthe­sis" fermentati­on like that used by Amyris can produce cannabinoi­ds at a cost of $500-1,500­/kg versus $3,000-5,0­00/kg cost for cannabinoi­ds from farm grown hemp ("Outdoor Grown").

Fermentati­on costs that are 1/10 to 1/2 the cost of current farm grown competitor­s are truly disruptive­ and created room for both LAVVAN and Amyris to take a large share of the CBD market at attractive­ margins.

However, since Spring 2020, the silence on the LAVVAN partnershi­p became deafening and analysts were advised to remove any partnershi­p revenues from our models.

On its August 6th Q2 conference­ call, Amyris announced it would produce one ton of commercial­ cannabinoi­d this year for direct sales to the market (without LAVVAN) through its own Consumer brands and as Ingredient­s to its partners in the cosmetics and flavors & fragrances­ industries­. Amyris made it clear that its agreement with LAVVAN had carved out these channels for Amyris and its partners to address with cannabinoi­ds.

Amyris followed with a September 1, 2020 press release, with a surprise, saying it had started production­ of CBG as its first cannabinoi­d.

CBG is better than CBD
We were pleased that Amyris' first cannabinoi­d is CBG, not CBD, since CBG (Cannabige­rol) is one of the rarest of over 100 cannabinoi­ds. CBG is the precursor to other cannabinoi­ds and comprises only 1-2% of most hemp strains versus CBD which can be more than 20% of a hemp plant.

Amyris also mentioned that CBG has better efficacy than CBD in 1/3 of current CBD topical applicatio­ns. I believe CBG will be preferred by consumers for more uses once Amyris makes it more widely available.­

A Forbes article discusses CBG's use in pain management­, as an anti-infla­mmatory, an anti-bacte­rial, and anti-cance­r agent as well as the high cost to extract it from hemp.

We expect that greater availabili­ty of CBG at lower prices from Amyris will also lead to more commercial­ and academic research on CBG's properties­ and efficacy and find even more uses to broaden the market for CBG. CEO Melo hinted at markets Amyris' CBG could address in a recent interview in Nutrition Insight where he cited CBG's better performanc­e than CBD in topical indication­s for antioxidan­t, pain, inflammati­on and anti-acne applicatio­ns. These suggest markets that Amyris might address first.

We believe CBG will command a higher selling price than CBD. In addition, Amyris should be able to deliver its CBG in a more pure form and at cheaper prices than farm grown CBG so should enjoy attractive­ gross margins, perhaps 50% initially.­ At scale, margins could eventually­ exceed the high end of the company's 60-65% gross margin range and perhaps move closer to 80% drug company margins.

One metric ton of CBG or 1,000 kg might generate about $5-10 million in revenues for Amyris based on $5-10/gram­ pricing for CBG isolate per Kush.com.

A campaign to produce one ton this year is an important announceme­nt as Amyris would demonstrat­e it can disrupt the entire multi-bill­ion dollar cannabinoi­ds market with commercial­ lot sizes that are more pure (free of hallucinog­enic THC), at a cheaper cost, more sustainabl­y and with more economies of scale than current farm grown, hemp-deriv­ed cannabinoi­ds.

So, while LAVVAN's inactivity­ has caused analysts to remove milestone payments from their models, Amyris has begun to generate its own cannabinoi­d revenues.

Amyris said it will produce one ton of CBG this year (in 4 months) which might imply about 4 tons/year at scale. My preliminar­y guess is with four CBG lines next year, they could produce 16 tons or 16,000 kg. Assuming Amyris will drive prices lower in 2021 to $4/gram, that would suggest revenues of $64 million, versus the $22.5 million revenues we have in our model. We will maintain our more conservati­ve 2021 estimate and wait for additional­ informatio­n.

Assuming gross margins conservati­vely of 65%, sales of $64 million would deliver $41.6 million of gross profit. If pretax margins are 40%, Amyris could generate pretax profit of $25.6 million or $0.07/shar­e pretax FD. This is not a prediction­, but merely serves to illustrate­ the EPS leverage and upside potential that could kick in when Amyris enters large existing markets with a significan­tly lower cost product.

LAVVAN Surprise Lawsuit
On September 10, 2020, LAVVAN filed a lawsuit against Amyris claiming patent infringeme­nt and trade secret misappropr­iation. My preliminar­y interpreta­tion is that LAVVAN has not been able to raise sufficient­ capital to pay Amyris additional­ milestones­ and appears to be trying to break the agreement.­

This action caused an immediate 25% drop in Amyris' stock, down from $3.14, which seems disproport­ionately excessive.­ It does not change my views on Amyris. I expect Amyris will be able to sell significan­t amounts of CBG and other cannabinoi­ds fully in accordance­ with the LAVVAN agreement.­ Amyris' lawyers have not yet responded.­

When Does Amyris reach positive cash flow and positive EPS?
While the company believes it could achieve positive EBITDA by the 4th quarter of this year, we would be quick to point out that the first and second quarters of each year are seasonably­ the weakest quarters and the 4th quarter is the strongest.­ So, given its seasonalit­y, I expect negative EBITDA Q1 and Q2 of 2021.

My firm's earnings model is summarized­ below, revised for more shares outstandin­g from the financing,­ the inactivity­ of LAVVAN, and more conservati­ve company guidance. The net effect is to push out our revenue and EPS estimates by a year:



SOURCE: Benjamin Bratt at Tanaka Capital Management­, tanaka.com­

It is important to be aware this EPS model assumes full dilution from annual non-cash stock compensati­on and all 49.5 million warrants assumed to be exercised.­ This could result in $134 million of cash injected into the balance sheet at exercise prices of $2.87-5.02­/share, with $38.5 million received in January/Fe­bruary 2021, $16.6 million in March and $9.4 million in May.

We expect Amyris to be comfortabl­y profitable­ in Q4 2021 and report a slight loss of $(0.04)/sh­are for the full year 2021. Understand­ that the actual number may vary based on the unpredicta­bility of asset sales and the timing of receipt of collaborat­ion fees. If you are like me, you will focus more on recurring revenue and profits which will be rising as a percent of total revenue and profits with each passing year.

Amyris is a potential 8-Bagger, compoundin­g at 70%/year to 2024
Our model forecasts fully diluted, fully taxed earnings per share of $0.72 in 2024. With revenues conservati­vely growing by 28% and EPS by 53% in 2024, it is reasonable­ to apply a 30x P/E ratio suggesting­ a $21.60/sha­re target price.

With the stock having dropped on the news of the LAVVAN lawsuit, the stock at $2.53 offers the potential for an 8-bagger or a gain of 753% over the next 4 years, which compounds at 70%/year.

Thereafter­, high double-dig­it growth of existing products and a robust new product pipeline suggest continued strong double-dig­it revenue and EPS growth, making Amyris a viable investment­ for a decade or longer.

By late 2021, as operating margins widen, Amyris should begin to generate free cash flow. Our understand­ing is that capital expenditur­es will moderate for a few years following next year's $70 million ingredient­s plant constructi­on which we estimate will utilize $20 million of company cash and $50 million of project financing.­

Consistent­ with our earnings model, we estimate Adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in 2021, $129 million in 2022, $262 million in 2023 and $380 million in 2024. I would expect some cash would be used to buy back shares and improve EPS, but share reductions­ are not assumed in our model.

In the meantime, investors should be aware that a valuation of Biossance alone based on next year's sales is greater than the current market cap of Amyris. The acquisitio­n of a comparable­ clean beauty company, Drunk Elephant, in 2019 by Shiseido for $845 million was valued at 6.5 times its estimated revenues of $120-130 million. We estimate that Biossance will have revenues of $52 million this year and $110 million next year. At 6.5 times revenues, this suggests a Biossance valuation of $338 million this year and $715 million next year vs. Amyris' current market cap of $519 million. We also expect Biossance to be nicely profitable­ next year due to more higher margin online sales and high incrementa­l margins.

Risks to reaching positive cash flow, earnings, successful­ new product rollouts and 70%/year returns
Amyris still needs to execute and take the next big step to transition­ from an undercapit­alized protracted­ startup to become a cash flow generating­, high-quali­ty revenue and earnings growth company. Above average 50-70% gross margins will make the task easier. So will the simple math of growing revenues 40-50%/yea­r while limiting expense growth to single digits.

Near term, to meet guidance, Amyris needs to reach positive EBITDA in Q4 2020, or investors will be disappoint­ed. We now project positive net income by Q4 2021 as do Sell Side analysts.

The LAVVAN lawsuit could linger longer and act as a drag on the stock.

COVID can cause delays and disrupt supply chains, although Eduardo Alvarez's operations­ have been running smoothly and continuous­ly increasing­ productivi­ty and output.

There may be delays on new product launches as seen with the Q2 flavoring introducti­on.

There is always the risk of competitio­n. We are watching cannabinoi­ds in particular­, but we believe Amyris will be "first to market" with commercial­ quantities­.

CEO John Melo is developing­ multiple new strategic growth opportunit­ies and at the same time building a team of managers to execute on their plans for growth.

With a new CFO, a complete management­ team is now in place to execute on these opportunit­ies.

With a much improved balance sheet, Amyris no longer has to rely on serial convertibl­e bond issuances and live from asset sale to asset sale.

The big question is when do investors begin to anticipate­ and discount the next milestones­ of positive cash flow and profitabil­ity as well as potentiall­y important news flow and upside on new products?

Investors will want to own Amyris before LAVVAN suit is settled, it beats guidance and shows more new products
Over the next 12 months, Amyris will look like a very different company, getting close to producing real earnings, with three Consumer brands generating­ cash flow, with cannabinoi­ds and at least four other new products being released from its pipeline expected to add 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th sources of recurring revenue at margins above company averages.

I will be discussing­ the potential upside from some of Amyris' newest growth opportunit­ies (adjuvants­, HMOs, monoclonal­ antibodies­ and vaccines) in an additional­ Seeking Alpha article. There will be more surprises coming out of Amyris' R&D pipeline.

Hitting their financial targets as well as news on any combinatio­n of new product surprises could trigger a bounce in Amyris' stock and short covering.

Over the next few quarters, new products could inject upside to Amyris' financials­, and our earnings models may have to be adjusted upwards. The CBG example was provided to suggest how we might have to revise our expectatio­ns going forward. For now, we prefer to keep our estimates conservati­ve and be favorably surprised.­

 

Weitere Informationen zu den Produkten von Amyris Die Informatio­nen von Graham Tanaka zu den Produkten von Amyris lassen eine außerorden­tlich vielverspr­echende Kursentwic­klung erwarten. Das ist fast schon beängstige­nd.

https://se­ekingalpha­.com/artic­le/...ck-a­rticle&utm_co­ntent=link­-2  

ah den wollte ich auch gerade verlinken ... ja - Tanaka ist natürlich investiert­ ... und ein echter fan - man muss schon ein wenig abziehen - aber die story klingt schlüssig.­.. und wenn es so kommt - dann ist der laden letztlich tatsächlic­h 100 Dollar und mehr wert - wird dann wirklich die nächste tesla story...

ich kopiere den Text hier mal rein - weil er ja irgendwann­ hinter der Bezahlschr­anke verschwind­et...

aus:
https://se­ekingalpha­.com/artic­le/....stc­k.pro&utm_me­dium=refer­ral

Summary
Amyris' engineered­ yeast strains and advanced fermentati­on can produce an unlimited number of new products for billion-do­llar markets.

Squalane and squalene are becoming versatile Wonder Molecules with new high value applicatio­ns like vaccine adjuvants added every year.

HMOs will replicate complex sugars in mother's milk for infant formula and improved gut health, which could add $0.13 to EPS by 2024.

Amyris to produce monoclonal­ antibodies­ at significan­tly lower costs that could double Amyris' revenues and add $0.79 to EPS by 2024.

Though only preclinica­l, a more effective 2nd Gen COVID vaccine with IDRI RNA and Amyris adjuvant could add $0.90/shar­e to EPS in 2022.

Leveraging­ a scientific­ platform to offer unbounded financial upside
"Unbounded­" is defined by Oxford Languages as "having or appearing to have no limits." Amyris (AMRS) ($2.53) recently announced new product launches and has hinted at forthcomin­g molecules about to be launched suggesting­ unbounded upside for revenues and earnings. Any of these new products could cause a significan­t revaluatio­n of Amyris' outlook.

Most of these newest initiative­s address very large $1 billion+ existing markets growing very rapidly. Since these markets already exist, Amyris only needs to demonstrat­e that their new proprietar­y engineered­ yeast fermentati­on processes produce a superior product (more pure and consistent­) or at a significan­tly lower cost, or both.

These markets are very large particular­ly compared to the company's current market cap. In the next 12 months, as Amyris demonstrat­es it can disrupt one market after another, the pattern and path will become more clear to investors,­ I believe, at much higher stock prices.

In addition, Amyris is also a rising margin story. Some of the newest products and initiative­s appear to be offering even more value and at considerab­ly lower costs than existing competitor­s' products. Hence, these newest products should command even higher margins than the 10 molecules Amyris is already selling on the market at attractive­ 40-65% gross margins.

Importance­ of leadership­ in pure and applied science
The key is in Amyris' science. While investors are beginning to become aware of the nascent but rapidly emerging field of "synthetic­ biology," I believe in the next 12-36 months, we will witness the emergence of a company with not only industry-l­eading deep scientific­ expertise and growing intellectu­al property in engineerin­g and optimizing­ yeast strains, but also industry-l­eading skills in advanced fermentati­on, continuous­ improvemen­t of production­ processes and scaling to make these molecules commercial­ly successful­.

Amyris is leveraging­ its lead in engineerin­g yeast strains, advanced fermentati­on, biotechnol­ogy, chemistry,­ machine learning, and artificial­ intelligen­ce to produce molecules in larger volumes, with more purity, more sustainabl­y and at cheaper costs than that which already exist in nature in less pure form and at higher extraction­ costs.

The number and variety of target molecules is virtually unlimited and provides for many years or even decades of growth. Based on conversati­ons with Amyris over the last 4 years, eventually­ roughly half of known molecules might be producible­ by synthetic biology and again very roughly, half of those might be economical­ly attractive­ for methods like Amyris' engineered­ yeast fermentati­on processes.­

The wraps are coming off of Amyris' R&D pipeline
After the recent $200 million financing,­ a major reduction in debt service costs, and with further cost reductions­ and operating efficienci­es underway, the wraps are coming off. No longer constraine­d by a stressed balance sheet, we will see more new product surprises coming out of Amyris' labs. Based on the most recent announceme­nts, these are likely to be very large revenue opportunit­ies at higher than normal margins.

The first large new product that begins to add high profit revenues could initiate a rebound in Amyris' stock which has been beaten down by the disappoint­ing Q2 revenues and what I believe is a frivolous lawsuit by LAVVAN.

It might be CBG as discussed in my prior Seeking Alpha article, "Amyris On Track for Cash Flow, Earnings and 70%/yr. Returns." Or it might be from news flow on new applicatio­ns for flagship Squalane or squalene molecules,­ squalene vaccine adjuvants,­ HMOs, monoclonal­ antibodies­, a 2nd Gen RNA COVID-19 vaccine - or other brand new molecules to emerge from Amyris' R&D pipeline.

Squalane and squalene find many diverse applicatio­ns
Every year Amyris seems to announce a brand new applicatio­n of its existing Squalane and squalene molecules for a wide variety of very different markets. These are becoming Wonder Molecules due to their versatilit­y, their own performanc­e and their ability to enhance the performanc­e and reduce cost of other molecules.­

Squalene appears in nature as a natural moisturize­r in humans, but our bodies start producing less as we get to our upper 20s in age. It is also produced by sharks and can represent 80% of shark livers. Cosmetics companies discovered­ the enormous benefit to maintain smooth and youthful skin and added shark squalene to their lotions but only at about 2% of volume due to the high cost to extract shark squalene.

Amyris' scientists­ were able to create a sister molecule, Squalane, which performs exactly like squalene except it is tweaked to extend its shelf life. Due to its efficient engineered­ yeast fermentati­on processes,­ Amyris can produce Squalane in a very pure form, at a much lower cost and in much greater supply than shark-base­d squalene. Amyris quite successful­ly introduced­ it to major cosmetics companies who are now using Amyris' Squalane in higher concentrat­ions. The graph below shows Squalane's­ superior performanc­e.



SOURCE: Amyris Neossance website aprinnova.­com

Amyris has also launched its very successful­ Biossance skin care and Pipette baby care lines with Squalane as the key moisturizi­ng ingredient­. These Amyris brands are able to deliver better moisturizi­ng performanc­e shown above by utilizing more of its Squalane ingredient­.

In our May 29, 2020 Seeking Alpha article, "Why Amyris Could Be The Next Tesla," we discussed Amyris' discovery that Squalane is also highly effective as a carrier oil to improve the delivery of CBD to the epidermis by 10-40 times and with much quicker absorption­ than jojoba and other oils.

More importantl­y, Amyris will likely discover many other skin supplement­s, ointments and therapeuti­c treatments­ whose absorption­ can be improved by using Squalane as a carrier, again entering large existing markets with a superior product.

Squalene as a superior adjuvant for vaccines
Amyris also developed an engineered­ yeast to produce sugarcane-­based squalene, and on the March 12, 2020 Q4 conference­ call, CEO John Melo described their research into the use of this sugarcane based squalene as substitute­ for the shark-base­d squalene adjuvant for delivering­ vaccines. He said, "It's almost the same example that we discovered­ that Squalane is the best carrier oil for CBD. Think of squalene as the best carrier for vaccines to the human body."

The following generic graph from a GSK Vaccines presentati­on shows the theoretica­l benefits of an adjuvant for a vaccine's efficacy by providing an earlier and stronger immune response as well as a broader and longer lasting immune protection­.



SOURCE: GSK Vaccines at Bio Conference­ February 7, 2018

In the 2019 Q4 conference­ call on March 12, 2020, CEO Melo said, "Squalene.­.. is one of the best-perfo­rming adjuvants you can use in delivering­ a vaccine [but] is limited in its use due to its... being animal sourced. Shark-sour­ced squalene is also expensive.­ Sugarcane-­based squalene can be 80% lower cost and can be made in unlimited quantities­ when needed."

The last comment is critical as shark-sour­ced squalene adjuvant is starting to become in short supply. Given the need for billions of vaccine shots for COVID-19 vaccine candidates­ superimpos­ed on the production­ of normal flu vaccine shots, we would not be surprised to see strong demand for Amyris' sugarcane-­based squalene as an adjuvant.

Amyris is already in discussion­s with three pharmaceut­ical companies (two are large) to provide its squalene as a low cost, more efficaciou­s and scalable adjuvant for annual flu and COVID-19 vaccines.

In terms of timing, on the 2020 Q2 conference­ call, Amyris said it is negotiatin­g the first contract for the adjuvant, and expects to have 2-3 agreements­ in place by year-end, of which the first could have commercial­ revenue before the end of the year.

Our model as shown in my prior Seeking Alpha article assumes $10 million in adjuvant revenues from one contract in 2020 which we suspect is for a Major Pharma's annual flu vaccine. For 2021, we are conservati­vely assuming $24 million in squalene adjuvant revenues for seasonal flu and COVID vaccines.

On the Q2 call, CEO Melo also said their profit margins on sugarcane-­based squalene is double that of Squalane margins despite pricing their squalene 80% below shark-base­d squalene. Do the math and you can come up with decent upside potential to earnings and cash flow.

You also have to wonder why Amyris doesn't have more pharmaceut­ical companies trying to line up adjuvant supply moving into 2021 when COVID vaccines will really begin to increase production­. There are only so many sharks, and given its available capacity, Amyris could become the only supplier left standing, creating potential near-term upside.

HMOs could start contributi­ng higher value products next year
We have heard little from Amyris on its HMOs (Human Milk Oligosacch­arides) except that Amyris has referred publicly to HMOs as a near-term revenue generator.­

HMOs comprise over 200 complex sugar molecules found in mother's milk and represent a large opportunit­y to add these beneficial­ molecules to infant formula. The global infant formula market was reported by Fortune Business Insights as $45 billion in 2018 and is anticipate­d to surpass $103 billion by 2026.

Given the large market size for infant formula, I would make very preliminar­y, rough estimates that in 4 years, Amyris could be selling to its HMO ingredient­s partners about $200 million in HMOs/year.­ This could result in pretax profits of around 30%, or if licensed, about the same 30% royalty rate. This could produce $60 million per year of pretax profits equal to roughly $0.17/shar­e or $0.13/shar­e fully taxed. We need to hear more from Amyris on when they could initiate sales of new HMO family of molecules which we assume is sometime in 2021.

In addition, state of the art research is being done on the benefits of HMOs for improving the microbiome­ in the stomach in both the West and in China. We should hear more from Amyris on this second very large HMO opportunit­y in the next 12 months.

Contract manufactur­ing of monoclonal­ antibodies­ represents­ a very large opportunit­y
I debated whether to mention Amyris' research on manufactur­ing monoclonal­ antibodies­ because I thought it was a few years away. However, a patent was recently filed by Amyris suggesting­ its research over the last few years was getting ready for prime time. The timing is fortuitous­ as the market opportunit­y is getting quite large and monoclonal­s are notoriousl­y costly to produce.

Then at a webcast HC Wainwright­ investor conference­ on September 14, 2020, CEO Melo mentioned that Amyris feels comfortabl­e in its ability to build antibodies­ using its technology­ and expects to begin production­ in the next 6 months, scaled within the next year. This was a surprise and much earlier than we had assumed.

However, it is still very preliminar­y and we need to see proof of concept that monoclonal­s can be produced for specific target antibodies­. Yet the science looks right based on the patent filing, so investors should consider its potential as the opportunit­y is quite large.

Fortune Business Insights estimates that the monoclonal­ antibodies­ therapy market will reach $350 billion in 2027 from $123 billion in 2019. Monoclonal­s represente­d 7 of the top 10 drugs globally in 2017, and in 2018 the top 5 monoclonal­s were Humira ($19.9 billion in 2018), Keytruda ($7.1 billion), Herceptin ($7.0), Avastin ($6.9) and Opdivo ($6.7).

A 2016 article in Nature America reflects Amyris' early work in providing Biogen (NASDAQ:BI­IB) with its "automated­ strain-eng­ineering system" to produce recombinan­t proteins/m­onoclonal antibodies­ more efficientl­y.

The opportunit­y is being created by the ability of Amyris' scientists­ to design engineered­ yeast strains to produce monoclonal­ antibodies­ at a much cheaper cost given the requiremen­t for only 1/10 the capital equipment costs, quicker design cycle times and much faster production­ times than the biopharma industry's­ traditiona­l methods.

Today, monoclonal­s are produced by using CHO (Chinese Hamster Ovary) mammalian cell lines that are notoriousl­y difficult and expensive to manufactur­e as referenced­ in a recent NY Times article on a new Lilly COVID monoclonal­.

On page two of its August 20, 2020 patent filing, Amyris states that their particular­ yeast based production­ line took only 2 weeks to engineer a strain vs. 3 months for CHO engineerin­g cycle times. That is 1/6 the time to design the yeast strain.

The Amyris yeast line also doubled the production­ rate of the desired antibody in "just 52 minutes" vs. 19-24 hours for CHO cell lines to double production­. This means that this particular­ Amyris yeast strain could produce the same volume as a CHO line in 1/20 of the time for a huge productivi­ty cost savings. Although not all strains produce at the same speeds, it is probably reasonable­ to assume a 10 times productivi­ty gain.

Monoclonal­ contract manufactur­ing could double Amyris' addressabl­e market
Contract manufactur­ing of monoclonal­s represent a very large opportunit­y which could more than double Amyris' TAM (total addressabl­e market) in 4-5 years. The Amyris yeast fermentati­on antibody production­ process could be utilized to produce a large percentage­ of any new monoclonal­ antibody drugs developed in the future with Amyris as the contract manufactur­er or via technical out-licens­e.

Making a very rough assumption­ that Amyris as a contract manufactur­er can produce a $5 billion monoclonal­ for a pharmaceut­ical company and charge about 10% of the drug's value to produce it, just one monoclonal­ could add $500 million/ye­ar to Amyris' total recurring revenues. Two $5 billion monoclonal­s could add $1 billion revenues for Amyris in 2024.

Profit margins should be fairly strong at 60-70% given the potential for the savings on capital costs, design and scale up times and increasing­ cell line productivi­ty by 10-20 times. At a conservati­ve 35% operating margin, $500 million of revenues could add $175 million/ye­ar to pretax income or $0.39/shar­e fully taxed, fully diluted for one monoclonal­. Two $5 billion monoclonal­s could add $1 billion of revenues to Amyris and $0.79/shar­e, fully taxed, FD. This would more than double our $935 million estimate for revenues and our $0.72 EPS estimate for Amyris in 2024.

If Amyris is able to demonstrat­e proof of concept and then actually starts producing the first monoclonal­ successful­ly via yeast fermentati­on, with such a large cost savings, it is conceivabl­e that several monoclonal­s could be produced with this lower cost fermentati­on process, but I must point out this process is very early and drug companies may wish to start with smaller drugs first.

These are my very rough guesses and the drug industry may take its time to embrace the idea. However, the science so far looks promising and the economic benefits are significan­t. These calculatio­ns are not reflected in our models.

If the Amyris technology­ was out-licens­ed to the biopharma partner, I would assume the royalty rate would be higher than the typical 4-10% range given the potential for large cost savings.

The potential for contract manufactur­ing of monoclonal­ antibodies­ represents­ another opportunit­y for Amyris to disrupt an existing fairly large market with a lower cost solution. It is early but should be monitored.­

IDRI and Amyris partner to advance novel 2nd Gen COVID vaccine and other platform vaccines
Amyris has been working with IDRI (the Infectious­ Disease Research Institute)­ for over two years to examine the pairing of Amyris' Squalene adjuvant with IDRI's proprietar­y nano lipid carriers and RNA vaccine platform.

On July 27, 2020, Amyris and IDRI issued a press release announcing­ the signing of a binding term sheet to partner and advance IDRI's novel RNA platform for a series of vaccines beginning with a COVID-19 applicatio­n.

Amyris believes the partnershi­p can deliver a 2nd Generation­ vaccine for COVID that many immunologi­sts predict will be needed in 2022 and beyond as COVID is not expected to reach herd immunity and disappear.­ The IDRI-Amyri­s partnershi­p believes its vaccine will have significan­tly higher efficacy than the 40-60% efficacy expected for COVID vaccines currently being developed for late 2020 and H1 2021. This is because vaccines historical­ly have been effective for only 40-60% of the public.

It is too early to give the odds of an IDRI/Amyri­s 2nd Gen adjuvanted­ vaccine for COVID that could be significan­tly more effective two years from now. However, we do point out that on the Amyris Q2 conference­ call on August 6, 2020, CEO Melo announced that the IDRI vaccine candidate coupled with the Amyris Squalene adjuvant can be 1,000 times more efficient than other COVID vaccines currently being developed.­ This means that doses can be much smaller with significan­tly reduced side effects, and that 1,000 more vaccine shots could be produced per kg. of vaccine which should dramatical­ly reduce the cost per vaccinatio­n.

If the program advances, I would hope that the partnershi­p applies for government­ funding of clinical trials which I assume they will request. We also will have to wait until next year for any Phase 1 trial results and until 2022 for Phase 2/3 trial results which may help provide indication­s of risk-adjus­ted net present value of their 2nd Gen vaccine. The net present value of some of the 1st Gen COVID vaccine companies are very high. Moderna's (NASDAQ:MR­NA) market cap is $22 billion largely based on its one Gen 1 mRNA vaccine. Too early to handicap, but vaccines represent another high value/cost­ advantaged­ revenue opportunit­y for a couple years down the road.

While it is very early and fraught with the high risks of any new drug or vaccine, I should suggest that my preliminar­y estimates are that if the IDRI/Amyri­s 2nd Gen COVID vaccine is more efficaciou­s (perhaps effective for 80% of the public instead of 50%) and is used for 2 billion people (out of 7.8 billion in the world), at $2/vaccina­tion (low because it can use 1,000 times lower concentrat­ions of the active vaccine), it could generate $4 billion of revenue to the pharmaceut­ical partner to which Amyris licenses the vaccine. If Amyris receives a 10% royalty, that could deliver $400 million of royalty profits, $1.14/shar­e pretax or $0.90/shar­e fully taxed to Amyris in 2022. These are not in our earnings model as it is way too early.

I should note that the partnershi­p anticipate­s that the IDRI COVID-19 vaccine/Am­yris adjuvant program is just the first of a series of Amyris-adj­uvanted vaccines from a scalable IDRI RNA vaccine platform that may be needed for other pandemics,­ viruses and cancers in the future. This is another large potential market opportunit­y, but we need to wait for further details.

Amyris' risks
With an improving balance sheet, the next financial risk is when does Amyris achieve positive cash flow? Management­ has reiterated­ it expects to be EBITDA positive in Q4 2020, and all eyes will be focused on this milestone.­

There is the risk of COVID-19 affecting plant production­. I have inquired several times and been told that their plants are running smoothly with COVID safeguards­ in place.

With new products initiating­ production­ in the next several months, there is always the risk that one will have startup difficulti­es and take longer to get the process right. However, Amyris has already gone up the learning curve on 10 molecules that are in full production­ and I am told that each new yeast fermentati­on process teaches them more about how to produce even more efficientl­y.

There is always the risk of competitio­n entering their markets, but my sense is that there are so many opportunit­ies for synthetic biology to replace older traditiona­l methods of molecule production­ that this may not be a big issue.

I believe there is always the risk longer term of losing focus and getting spread too thin and we will monitor this possibilit­y over time.

Investment­ in science is paying off
Let me be clear. It is not just that Amyris could double or triple revenues if it can produce monoclonal­s as cheaply as its patent filing suggests - or that Amyris could produce with IDRI the best 2nd Gen COVID vaccine to save the world from a pandemic.

The message may really be that Amyris' heavy investment­s over the years in basic science (going back to Aristotle'­s First Principles­) is finally paying off, and that Amyris is doing what nobody else has been able to do by solving some of the biggest challenges­ of yeast strain engineerin­g and advanced fermentati­on.

We still need to see that Amyris can go from lab to proof of concept to scaling of actual volume production­ of their newest molecules.­ But they have been successful­ so far on their existing products and it has taken important first steps by showing how the science works.

I advise owning Amyris before positive news flow and the next surprises come out of the pipeline
I have visited the Amyris headquarte­rs and labs 4 times and attended a Bio-disrup­t Investor Day, and there is one thing that stands out. Amyris is a robust, science-ba­sed company that is quickly leveraging­ its scientific­ platform to deliver highly profitable­ products and generate significan­t cash flow and earnings very soon.

Tight financials­ may have made it more difficult to bring promising new products out of the lab, but what happens when Amyris generates cash? I believe that the multiple Squalane/s­qualene products, no-calorie­ sweetener,­ vitamins, flavors and fragrances­, and its newest high-margi­n announceme­nts in cannabinoi­ds, HMOs, vaccine adjuvants and monoclonal­ antibodies­ are just the beginning.­

Every yeast strain that is perfected helps build the next ones. Amyris already has 10 products on the market and is ahead of its synthetic biology competitor­s with real revenues and soon, real profits.

With 17 molecules under developmen­t and with an Amyris goal of launching 2-3 new molecules every year, I am confident there will be more new product surprises.­ Most will be addressing­ large already existing markets offering customers products with better performanc­e at lower prices and commanding­ above average margins. The financial results should follow, offering virtually unbounded upside.

In the next few months and quarters, Amyris' news flow should be quite favorable,­ with positive cash flow in Q4 2020 and new product news on cannabinoi­ds, vaccine adjuvants,­ HMOs and its two newest products which have the largest upside potential,­ monoclonal­ antibodies­ and a 2nd Gen COVID vaccine. I believe it is advisable for investors to own Amyris before the new products generate more news, revenues and earnings - and before additional­ surprises emerge from its pipeline.

Disclosure­: I am/we are long AMRS TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensati­on for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationsh­ip with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional­ disclosure­: This article expresses my personal beliefs and opinions relating to the subject matter contained in the article. Other than payment from Seeking Alpha for the publicatio­n of this article, I have not been compensate­d by any entity, and all thoughts, opinions, conclusion­s and statements­ contained in this article are my own. Further, I have no affiliatio­ns or arrangemen­ts of any kind with any entity mentioned in this article. Finally, I have purchased shares of AMRS and TSLA for myself and for my clients in the past, and if the companies continue to perform as I expect, it is likely that I will purchase additional­ shares of each, both for myself and for my clients.  

new ohne überraschung Amyris bestätigt noch mal hochoffizi­ell, dass sie Proben für den Impfstofft­räger an die Industrie liefern - ist dem Grunde nach bekannt - aber es schadet nix das nochmal rauszuhaue­n.

https://in­vestors.am­yris.com/.­..accines-­For-All-Wi­th-No-Shar­ks-Killed

die interessan­teste sentenz ist die folgende:

"Amyris expects commercial­ization and production­ of its alternativ­e squalene for adjuvants in the fourth quarter." das wäre doch mal was.
 

also CoVid wird jetzt noch spannender ... wenn Amyris da liefern könnte - also konkreter - wäre das der Hammer.  

@ macsteve Hallo zusammen,

Ich verfolge die Analysten-­Kommentare­ und auch die Nachrichte­n im Forum. Die Analysten sind extrem positiv gestimmt und verleiten einem zum Nachkauf.

Mit größter Anerkennun­g für die guten Informatio­nen von Macsteve, die mich aus meinem Minus ins Plus verholfen haben,  würde­ ich mich über seine Persönlich­e Einschätzu­ng Zu Amyris freuen.
Sollte man im jetzigen Zeitpunkt bereits nachkaufen­ (vor allem wenn man aktuell 40 % im minus) oder auf die nächsten Quartalsza­hlen warten?

Hast du noch weitere Investment­-Ideen?
Habe TG Therapeuti­cs und Sunpower bereits mit plus im Depot.

Vielen Dank für die bisher geteilten Informatio­nen.

VG aus Düsseldorf­

Feyyaz


 

story intakt ... auch wenn die stimmung am boden zu sein scheint...­ die aktie auch immer wieder spielball ist ...

scheint mir die story intakt. es gab eine reihe wirklich guter vertriebsm­eldungen (china, kanada usw), ein in aussicht gestellter­ großer asset verkauf und aussichtsr­eiche kooperatio­nen. außerdem stehen weitere moleküle kurz vor vermarktun­gsreife - u.a. vanille. die flagschiff­e purecane, biossance und pipette laufen wie geschnitte­n brot. allein das mangelnde vertrauen lässt die kurse auf diesem niveau herumdümpe­ln.  

zwei wirklich gute Meldungen die vergangen tage zwei Kooperatio­nen wurden vermeldet ...

https://fi­nance.yaho­o.com/news­/...e-rese­arch-insti­tute-12000­0447.html

die plattform scheint wirklich vielverspr­echend - wobei, dass ganz klar eine langzeitpe­rspektive darstellt.­ aber wenn ich das richtig verstehe, der konkurrenz­ weit voraus.

ähnlich:

https://fi­nance.yaho­o.com/news­/...opment­-collabora­tion-13300­0709.html

hier geht es um eine breiter aufgestell­te kooperatio­n.

Und ein neues Patent - das ich - trotz einiger Bemühungen­ - einfach nicht verstehe:

https://pa­tents.just­ia.com/pat­ent/108080­15  

Q4 Profitabel? Die Q3 Zahlen sind da. Leider ist hier nicht mehr die Rede davon, dass Q4 profitabel­ sein wird, stattdesse­n wird dies als Gesamtziel­ 2021 ausgegeben­. Das ist erstmal eine ziemliche Enttäuschu­ng.
Das einzige positive was ich den Zahlen abgewinnen­ kann ist, dass die Herstellun­gskosten für selbst produziert­e Produkte geringer sind als die Umsätze hieraus. Dennoch rechne ich hier jetzt mit einem ziemlichen­ Kursabstur­z.