5 Energieaktien für die Watch!
| eröffnet am: | 20.01.05 20:06 von: | lancerevo7 |
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Morningstar.com
Five Energy Stocks to Keep on Your Radar Screen
Wednesday January 19, 6:00 am ET
By Mark Uptigrove, CFA
There's no question: The energy market is hot. Since the beginning of 2004, oil prices have soared more than 50%, while natural-gas prices have lingered well above historical averages. Likewise, energy stocks have posted dramatic returns as expected future cash flows have risen.
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Because we're looking for stocks that are trading at meaningful discounts to our fair value estimates, the fantastic performance of energy prices and stocks has left us with few compelling investment recommendations. As of Jan. 14, the average price/fair value ratio for the 105 oil- and gas-related stocks that we cover sat at a stark 1.22. Highlighting this overvaluation, only one of these stocks, TransCanada (NYSE:TRP - News), currently holds a 5-star Morningstar Rating for stocks. Just another five stocks are currently rated 4 stars.
That said, here are five stocks, operating in various segments of the industry, that we think are worth keeping an eye on. While none are currently available at what we would consider to be bargain prices, we would eagerly invest if prices fell to attractive levels. These stocks are smaller and have lower profiles than many big industry players, but they represent companies with distinct competitive advantages and solid underlying business fundamentals, which is precisely what we are looking for.
Cimarex (NYSE:XEC - News)
Analyst: Eric Chenoweth
Fair Value Estimate: $35; Buy Price: $27
Cimarex is an oil and gas producer with more than 75% of its current reserves located in Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Unlike many of its upstream peers, Cimarex doesn't seek growth through acquisitions. Instead, the firm relies on its exploration and drilling program to replace reserves and boost production. Given the intense competition among would-be acquirers, the firm thinks a good deal is hard to find. In its short history, it has made a habit of being outbid by competitors. We admire Cimarex's disciplined approach to acquisitions and focus on exploration. In response to higher oil and gas prices, the firm has been drilling wells that produce rapidly but deplete quickly. These projects have been generating nice returns relative to the cost of capital employed. Furthermore, this Denver-based company is the only small oil and gas firm we cover that doesn't hedge any of its natural-gas or oil production, which we think makes a lot of sense for Cimarex. Of all the small oil and gas companies we cover, it also appears to have the greatest level of financial flexibility. That said, if exploration efforts stumbles, it could spell trouble for Cimarex. Aware of this risk, management has boosted capital spending from about $160 million in 2003 to $270 million in 2004.
FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI - News)
Analyst: Mark Weber
Fair Value Estimate: $27; Buy Price: $20.80
FMC Technologies makes a bewildering array of products for airports, food processors, and offshore oil producers. However, while these product segments may lack synergies, they have advantages in their respective markets that we believe constitute a narrow economic moat. The firm's Jetway boarding bridges and citrus extractors enjoy the largest shares of their markets and provide a sizable installed base for aftermarket sales. Energy systems, the largest segment, is the growth engine. FMC manufactures a variety of offshore equipment for the production of oil and natural gas. The segment's crown jewel, however, is its subsea systems business. Oil- and gas-production companies are increasingly tapping deep-water reserves, requiring larger equipment. With space on offshore platforms limited, systems are being placed on the ocean floor. Deep-water production activity should continue to grow for the next several years, expanding the market for FMC's equipment. FMC's dominant share of the subsea market and its alliances with major oil producers endow the firm with one of the few economic moats we've seen in oil services. The firm has consistently generated free cash flow in four of the past five years and enjoys returns on invested capital that are above its cost of capital, which is more than most oil-services companies can claim.
Talisman Energy (NYSE:TLM - News)
Analyst: Mark Uptigrove, CFA
Fair Value Estimate: $23; Buy Price: $17.70
We think international expertise gives this Calgary-based exploration and production company a leg up on its competition. The company uses cash flows from lower-risk North American operations to fund higher-risk international growth. Spun off from BP (NYSE:BP - News) in 1993, Talisman has been an active international oil and gas driller for more than a decade. The company has a solid operational record in the North Sea, Southeast Asia, and Africa, and we believe this makes Talisman much better positioned to increase production abroad than competitors that have more recently embarked on an international hunt for resources. Compared with other small producers, Talisman appears quicker to explore and acquire new properties as well as dispose of those it deems less attractive. In the North Sea, a strategy of acquiring properties and significantly boosting production has made Talisman the third-largest producer in the region. In North America, Talisman has also demonstrated that it can extract value from oil and gas properties that many other players cannot. Recent exploration efforts in western Canada have yielded results. These deep gas discoveries will help maintain production growth in this mature basin. Nonetheless, oil and gas reserves in North America are declining, and finding new resources will become increasingly difficult.
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG - News)
Analyst: Justin Perucki
Fair Value Estimate: $69; Buy Price: $53.20
Houston-based EOG is focused on North American natural gas. Consumption is growing 4% per year, while reserve depletion has been running about 5% annually, boosting gas prices. EOG's low-cost strategy helps the firm generate above-average margins and returns. We believe EOG can remain profitable even if gas prices drop to $1.50 per mcf, a level we doubt will ever be reached again. The firm has several unconventional fields in Texas, including the Barnett Shale in Fort Worth, that should provide very substantial returns. EOG prefers to target coal bed and shale gas deposits that many producers find unappealing. Over time, the firm has developed expertise using techniques to tap these hard-to-reach reserves. By focusing their efforts on these fields and drilling hundreds of wells, EOG is able to extract large quantities of gas very cost effectively. The firm is also diversifying its core operations by investing in Trinidad and the North Sea. This simple strategy helps the firm earn returns greater than its cost of capital. Though EOG has a highly cyclical business, it has kept its bottom line black during past troughs in natural-gas prices, indicating that it may indeed be among the low-cost producers.
Enbridge Energy LP (NYSE:EEP - News)
Analyst: Michael Cumming, CFA
Fair Value Estimate: $51; Buy Price: $39.30
We love pipelines' wide economic moats and stable cash flows, and Enbridge Energy LP is one of the largest crude-oil transporters in America. Cash distributions currently yield 7.1%, which ranks highest among the master limited partnerships that we cover. The company's crown jewel is its ownership of the U.S. portion of the Lakehead pipeline system, the world's longest crude pipeline. This system stretches 3,100 miles from the Canadian oil fields in Alberta to Chicago and points east. Lakehead owns an impressive share of its market, with about three fourths of the crude transport capacity coming out of western Canada, and is especially well positioned for growth. Unlike natural-gas production in western Canada, which is showing signs of reaching a plateau, oil production--particularly from oil sands--is increasing in this area. Although we would prefer that the company steered away from natural-gas gathering and processing activities, which are less economically attractive, Enbridge Energy LP plans to use its tax-advantaged status to continue to scoop up energy transportation and processing assets that provide stable cash flows in order to limit volatility for its unitholders. As is the case with most pipeline companies organized as partnerships, the yield provides a more compelling reason to buy the units than potential appreciation in the unit price.
die werte sehen doch ziemlich aussichtsreich aus !
http://www.ariva.de/board/203991/thread.m?a=
Talisman Energy (NYSE:TLM )
ist auch dabei.
MfG
Waldy
-Cameco (einer DER Player in Sachen Urangewinnung,ebenfalls Kanada)
oder defensiver
CS Equity Fund Global Resources (Portfolio: Metalle,Öl,Gas,Holz,Papier)
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MfG
Waldy
Zitat Homepage:
"Top Hoders:
Icahn Associates Corp. 71,754,602 6.93 65,298,553 10/28/2013
BlackRock Asset Management Canada Ltd. 56,906,785 5.50 56,906,785 12/31/2012 "
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/...-in-talisman-energy/
m. Meinung - Keine Empfehlung.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=60339800
m. Meinung - Keine Empfehlung.
CALGARY - Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM) says its net income was $491 million, or 47 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $213 million or 21 cents per share in the first quarter last year.
The Calgary-based oil and gas producer credits higher gas and liquids prices in North America, increased liquids volumes and the sale of part of the company's Montney gas properties in B.C. for $1.5 billion
Net income also improved over last quarter due to a reduction in impairment expenses, from $1.6 billion (including the company's share of joint venture results) to $130 million this quarter on a pre-tax basis.
Talisman Energy also reports cash flow of $616 million in the quarter, up six per cent from the previous quarter and a six per cent boost in production to 360,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The company says its North America portfolio delivered steady year-over-year liquids growth, driven by strong growth in the Eagle Ford and Greater Edson areas.
Talisman Energy's main operating areas are in North America, Colombia and the Asia-Pacific region.
Erst im Sommer wurden bereits Gespräche geführt, da war der Kurs jedoch bei 11 USD.... also aus meiner Sicht durchaus interessant.
WDH/Kreise: Repsol unternimmt neuen Anlauf auf Übernahme von Talisman Energy
06:47 09.12.14
MADRID (dpa-AFX) - Der spanische Ölkonzern Repsol (Repsol Aktie) lässt sich offenbar durch den Ölpreisverfall nicht von seiner Wachstumsstrategie abbringen. Das Unternehmen unternimmt nach Informationen aus Kreisen einen neuen Anlauf zur Übernahme der kanadischen Fördergesellschaft Talisman Energy. Die beiden Firmen diskutierten mehrere Möglichkeiten vom Kauf einzelner Projekte bis zur Komplettübernahme, sagten mehrere mit den Verhandlungen vertraute Personen der Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg am Montag.
Bereits im Sommer hatten die Unternehmen Gespräche geführt. Repsol machte aber wohl nach einer genauen Buchprüfung im August einen Rückzieher. Seitdem ist der Talisman-Wert an der Börse im Zuge des Einbruchs des Ölpreises um rund 60 Prozent auf 4,2 Milliarden kanadische Dollar (3 Mrd Euro) gesunken. Repsol könnte sich nun also deutlich günstiger das Unternehmen unter den Nagel reißen. Talisman fördert auf sechs Kontinenten Öl. Allerdings sind nicht alle Projekte aussichtsreich. So gelten etwa die Talisman-Quellen in der Nordsee als Problem. Zuletzt warnte das Unternehmen vor möglichen Abschreibungen auf diese Anlagen.
Talisman steht unter dem Druck des Großinvestor Carl Icahn. Der aktivistische Aktionär fordert die Zerschlagung, weil er glaubt, dass das Talismans Einzelteile mehr wert sind als der Konzern als Ganzes. Vor diesem Hintergrund könnten die Preisvorstellungen von Repsol und Talisman weit auseinander liegen, hieß es in den Kreisen. Zudem könnten weitere Ölpreisschwankungen eine Übernahme zunichte machen.
Repsol hatte vor einem halben Jahr erklärt, mit Übernahmen vor allem in Nordamerika wachsen zu wollen. Der Konzern sitzt auf Cash-Reserven, seit im Frühjahr Argentinien eine Entschädigung von 5 Milliarden US-Dollar für die Verstaatlichung der früheren Repsol-Tochter YPF zahlte./enl/fat
http://www.ariva.de/news/...uf-Uebernahme-von-Talisman-Energy-5234879
Talisman Sale May Be Holders' Best Exit After Oil Rout
08:40 AM EST, 12/11/2014 (MT Newswires) -- For Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM.TO, TLM) investors, a sale at depressed prices may be more worthwhile than waiting out the rout in oil, Bloomberg said Thursday
Bloomberg reported that Repsol SA (REP), which took a look at Talisman earlier this year, is "sniffing around again" after the plunge in crude prices drove the Canadian explorer's stock below C$5 for the first time in 14 years. Bloomberg noted Talisman said it has also had talks with other parties. According to Bloomberg, suitors could offer C$8 a share, based on the average premium in recent oil deals.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/...er-oil-rout-real-m-a.html
BRIEF-Spain's Repsol finalising 4 bln euro bid for Talisman-newspaper
Dec 12 (Reuters) - Spain's Repsol
* Is finalising an around 4 billion euro bid for Canada's Talisman - newspaper Expansion
* Citing financial sources, Expansion says bid could be around C$6 per share, that is C$6.0 billion (4.20 billion euros)
* For background Further company coverage: (1 euro = 1.4300 Canadian dollars) (Reporting By Elisabeth O'Leary; Editing by Tomas Cobos)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/...ef-idUSL6N0TW09D20141212
Gut, wenn man gerade erst eingestiegen ist. :)
Spain’s Repsol in talks to buy Talisman Energy
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/...1e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Lh33LFvK
Canada Pension Said to Weigh Talisman Bid as Repsol Nears Deal
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is weighing a bid for Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM), people with knowledge of the matter said, even as Repsol SA closes in on a deal for the Canadian oil-and-gas explorer.
Canada Pension initially considered buying parts of Talisman and is now also looking at a bid for the whole company after a plunge in its shares, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. Talisman is aware of Canada Pension’s interest in a deal, though a deal may not be reached, the people said.
Repsol, which revived acquisition talks with Talisman this month, is discussing a bid for Talisman at between C$6 and C$8 a share -- or about C$6 billion ($5.2 billion) to C$8 billion, two people with knowledge of the matter said. A deal could be reached as soon as this week, the people said.
Expansion reported earlier that Repsol (REP)’s board is meeting today to approve a Talisman bid.
Representatives for Talisman, Canada Pension, and Repsol declined to comment. Talisman said today that it is in talks with Repsol and “also been approached by a number of other parties regarding various transactions.”
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/...#1rQEG0dri2hcZQ6S.99
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...l-discuss-bid-100-pct-151038905.html
Entspricht 6,4 Euro... na das hat sich doch schonmal gelohnt. :)
Evtl. gibt es ja sogar noch ein zweites Gebot von Canadian Pension...