Coinbase shares surged 26% last week, closing at €179.70, as the company navigated a complex landscape of regulatory progress and intensifying competition. The rally, which included an 8% jump on Friday, highlights the market's reaction to a potential breakthrough in U.S. crypto legislation and a key banking license approval, even as traditional finance giants begin to encroach on its core business.

The catalyst for the recent optimism stems from a significant shift in Washington. CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly endorsed a revised version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a move marking a reversal from the company's earlier opposition in March. The contentious bill, which had been stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, centers on whether Stablecoin holders can earn passive interest. A White House report estimated that a full ban on such yields would cost consumers $800 million annually. For Coinbase, the outcome is material; Stablecoin services generated $364 million in a single recent quarter. The company's chief lobbyist, Faryar Shirzad, now anticipates a committee vote this month, with a full Senate vote targeted for May to avoid delays until after the midterm elections.

Simultaneously, Coinbase is advancing its ambitions in traditional finance. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has granted preliminary approval for a national trust bank charter. The proposed Coinbase National Trust Company would custody digital assets for institutional clients, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from established banking associations. This regulatory progress forms one pillar of a strategic push that also includes the January launch of commission-free stock trading, a direct foray into the territory of traditional brokers.

That territory is now fighting back. On April 16, brokerage giant Charles Schwab, with 39 million active brokerage accounts, announced it would offer direct Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading to retail clients, using Paxos for settlement at a fee of 75 basis points per transaction. This entry by a major traditional finance player signals a convergence where established brokers move into crypto while crypto exchanges expand into equities, increasing margin pressure across the board.

Analyst sentiment reflects this mixed outlook. While Piper Sandler raised its price target to $180 from $150, it maintained a "Neutral" rating. Analyst Patrick Moley cited heightened futures activity linked to geopolitical tensions as a potential benefit for crypto exchanges. However, the stock already trades above this new target. The consensus among 27 analysts remains a "Buy," with an average price target of $255, according to the secondary article. Citizens bank also recently lowered its target but kept a positive rating, highlighting Coinbase's institutional trading segment as a bright spot.

Despite the weekly surge, challenges persist. The share price remains 11% down year-to-date and roughly 22% below its 200-day moving average. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.9 indicates the stock is technically oversold. The upcoming first-quarter earnings report on May 7 serves as a critical test. Management has guided for subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million. This follows a disappointing profit performance in the final quarter of 2025 that triggered an immediate sell-off. The market will scrutinize whether Stablecoin revenue holds, futures trading has gained momentum, and the company's multi-billion dollar share buyback program can support valuation.

The coming weeks are pivotal. A successful Senate vote on the CLARITY Act or final OCC licensing could provide lasting business model security. Conversely, weak quarterly results or further competitive inroads from firms like Schwab could swiftly erase recent gains, leaving Coinbase to balance its regulatory victories against an increasingly crowded battlefield.

Ad

Fresh Coinbase information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.